黄金白银近期走势分析 -专题报告

Price Trends - COMEX gold closed at $5,084.20 per ounce on February 9, 2026, after reaching a high of $5,626.8 on January 29, 2026, and a low of $4,423.2 on February 2, 2026[4] - COMEX silver closed at $83.05 per ounce on February 9, 2026, with a high of $121.785 on January 30, 2026, and a low of $63.9 on February 6, 2026[4] - Shanghai gold closed at ¥1,121.22 per gram on February 10, 2026, after a high of ¥1,258.72 on January 29, 2026, and a low of ¥1,005.4 on February 2, 2026[7] Supply and Demand Analysis - Global gold supply in 2025 was 5,002.31 tons, with recycled gold contributing 1,404.33 tons; China's gold production was 552.020 tons, a 3.35% increase year-on-year[10] - Global gold demand reached a record 5,002 tons in 2025, driven by investment demand of 2,175 tons, an 84% increase year-on-year; jewelry demand fell by 19.2% to 1,638 tons[13] - Central banks purchased 863.25 tons of gold in 2025, a 21% decrease from 2024, but their share of total demand rose to nearly 25% by 2024[16] Inventory Insights - SHFE gold inventory rose from approximately 15 tons at the beginning of 2025 to about 100 tons by year-end, with a peak of 104 tons on February 9, 2026[18] - COMEX silver inventory started at over 300 million ounces in early 2025, peaking near 500 million ounces before declining to approximately 390 million ounces (1.21 million tons) by February 9, 2026[23] Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.4% in December 2025, down from 4.6% in November; non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, below expectations[35] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 52.6 in January 2026, while the services PMI was at 53.8, indicating economic resilience[46] Market Outlook - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as Fed Chair led to a significant drop in precious metals, as he is viewed as a strong inflation fighter, impacting market expectations for gold[55] - Despite recent volatility, geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties may keep gold and silver prices above historical averages, with short-term targets around $5,000 per ounce for gold and $80 per ounce for silver[55]