瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the supply - side pressure is expected to gradually increase with the start - up of COFCO's Australian rapeseed production line. The overall rapeseed meal is in a weak trend due to the news of Canadian rapeseed purchases. The market anticipates the recovery of rapeseed imports, suppressing the long - term market performance [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the Sino - Canadian trade relationship is expected to ease, boosting Canadian rapeseed export expectations. The new US biofuel tax credit policy and the decrease in Malaysian palm oil inventory support the market. Domestically, rapeseed oil is in a destocking mode, and the basis remains high. However, the supply - side pressure is increasing as Australian rapeseed is being crushed, and the expected recovery of rapeseed imports strengthens the supply increase expectation. The market fluctuates greatly recently, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9096 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2244 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. ICE rapeseed (active) was 674.9 Canadian dollars/ton, up 15.6 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 5562 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 21 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was - 48 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 266839 lots, down 5934 lots; rapeseed meal was 934733 lots, down 141 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was - 17897 lots, down 3944 lots; rapeseed meal was - 242562 lots, up 7086 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 625 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal was 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average price: Rapeseed oil was 10076.25 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. Import cost of rapeseed was 8054.25 yuan/ton, up 101.35 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis was 874 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan; rapeseed meal main - contract basis was 256 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Spreads with substitutes: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1390 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot spread was 920 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread was 560 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast was 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed import volume was 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons. Imported rapeseed crushing profit was 228 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged. Imported rapeseed weekly operation rate was 2.67%, up 2.14 percentage points [2]. - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; import volume of rapeseed meal was 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. 3.4. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.4 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.3 million tons, up 0.2 million tons [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory was 23.6 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 9.35 million tons, down 0.75 million tons [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 0.4 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 27.5 million tons, down 1.7 million tons [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 1.17 million tons, down 1.2 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 1.48 million tons, up 1.38 million tons [2]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - Feed production was 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons. Social retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry was 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production was 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. 3.6. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.34%, down 0.62 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 19.34%, down 0.62 percentage points [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 14.51%, unchanged; 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 13.94%, unchanged [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.46%, down 0.34 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.49%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 22.78%, down 0.16 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.16%, down 0.14 percentage points [2]. 3.7. Industry News - On Monday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.74% due to the surge in Chicago soybean oil futures [2]. - Brazilian soybeans have entered the early harvesting stage. StoneX expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach 181.6 million tons, putting pressure on international soybean prices [2]. - Analysts expect the US soybean ending inventory in the 2025/26 season to be 347 million bushels, slightly lower than the January forecast [2]. - As of December 31, 2025, Canadian rapeseed inventory was 15.6 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year, constraining the market price [2]. 3.8. Key Points to Watch - Monday's rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from myagric.com, and the implementation of the Sino - Canadian trade agreement [2]