瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the low - production period, with a shrinking total supply [2]. - Recently, both bonded and general trade warehouses at Qingdao Port have seen inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has increased month - on - month. With pre - holiday concentrated arrivals of overseas shipments, the total inbound volume continues to increase, while downstream enterprises have basically completed their pre - Spring Festival stockpiling. Market purchases are mainly for刚需, and the outbound volume from warehouses continues to decline. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate as downstream enterprises gradually go on holiday [2]. - Last week, the production capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined, and some enterprises entered the holiday state, dragging down the overall production capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the short - term production capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will further decline. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,900 - 16,600, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 16,335 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 90; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 105 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10. The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 13,230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 80; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,105 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10. The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 151,944 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,674; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 48,541 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 128 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,635, with a month - on - month increase of 927; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,125, with a month - on - month decrease of 318. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 112,570 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 50,803 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 201 [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,800 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 135 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10; the basis of non - standard products of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 1,045 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 65 [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,557 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 126; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 327 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 46 [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets is 62.07 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.72; the reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets is 58.6 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.74 [2]. - The reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue is 60 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.7; the reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 5 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1 [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 94,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 60.7%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.74 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.76%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.08 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 47.97 days, with a month - on - month increase of 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 45.24 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.54 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 80,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 21.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 17.97%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 24.85, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.86%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In January 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), basically flat month - on - month compared with December 2025, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period last year [2]. - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 606,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons and an increase rate of 2.55%. The bonded area inventory is 99,000 tons, with an increase rate of 1.38%; the general trade inventory is 507,800 tons, with an increase rate of 2.78% [2]. - As of February 4, the production capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.09%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.45%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points [2].