合成橡胶产业日报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday procurement is almost over, with most sample production enterprises' inventory decreasing and sample trading enterprises' inventory slightly decreasing overall. It's expected that the inventory of both production and trading enterprises will increase in the short term. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined, with some enterprises entering the shutdown and holiday state, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Multiple all - steel tire enterprises will gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10, and semi - steel tire enterprises mostly stop work from February 13 to February 15. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may further decline in the short term. [2] - The short - term forecast for the br2604 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,500. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,860 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50; the position volume is 25,458, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,150. [2] - The synthetic rubber 3 - 4 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 13,580 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,370. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 200 week - on - week. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 200 week - on - week; in Shanghai, it is 12,650 yuan/ton, down 50 week - on - week. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 50 week - on - week. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 110 yuan/ton, down 20 week - on - week. [2] - Brent crude oil is 69.04 US dollars/barrel, up 0.99; Naphtha CFR Japan is 597.88 US dollars/ton, down 4.75. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1270 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - WTI crude oil is 64.36 US dollars/barrel, up 0.81; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 10,475 yuan/ton, up 125. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, up 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 73.12%, up 1.86 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, down 2,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.68%, down 1.92 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 143,600 tons, up 13,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 78.86%, up 2.48 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 33,100 tons, down 1,300 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 27,100 tons, down 550 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,030 tons, down 750 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.76%, down 2.08 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires is 60.7%, down 1.74 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.286 million pieces, down 15,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.839 million pieces, up 8,000 pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.97 days, up 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.24 days, down 3.54 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, down 2.23 percentage points week - on - week and up 59.45 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, down 2.02 percentage points week - on - week and up 47.20 percentage points year - on - year. Some sample enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state at the end of January, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In January, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 149,900 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The capacity utilization rate was 75.97%, an increase of 3.19 percentage points from the previous month and 8.58 percentage points from the same period last year. [2] - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the supply has remained high. The pre - holiday procurement is almost over. Some traders have carried out promotional activities to recover funds. Downstream procurement has basically ended, with new transactions decreasing and mainly focusing on picking up goods. The inventory of production enterprises decreased last week, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly overall. As of February 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. [2]