瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2200 - 2300 in the short - term. The domestic methanol production has increased, the inventory of mainland enterprises has continued to decline, the port inventory has shown a trend of regional differentiation, and the domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate is expected to continue to rise [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2241 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 29 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 807,371 lots, down 24,275 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 135,647 lots, up 10,751 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7082 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1850 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 360 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 31 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 264 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 298 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 59 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.14 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.26 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 100.81 tons, down 6.48 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 40.29 tons, up 0.37 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 27.36 yuan/ton, down 10.95 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, up 31.64 tons. The inventory of mainland enterprises is 368,300 tons, down 55,800 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 92.26%, up 1.05% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 30.04%, down 3.28%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92%, unchanged; the operating rate of acetic acid is 81.72%, down 0.55%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, unchanged; the operating rate of olefins is 82.74%, up 1.87%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 835 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.99%, up 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.22%, up 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 23.94%, down 0.39%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.94%, down 0.4% [2]. Industry News - As of February 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.58 tons or 13.16%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 28.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.14 tons or 8.05%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 141.10 tons, a decrease of 6.11 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 6.48 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 0.37 tons. The domestic methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate was 83.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86% [2].