铂钯金期货日报-20260210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the trends of platinum and palladium may follow the rhythm of gold and silver, with high - volatility行情 likely to continue. The key short - term variable lies in the US January employment and inflation data. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium may have a phased catch - up opportunity driven by their financial attributes. In the long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. Due to the uncertainty of South African power supply and Russian exports and the implementation of new automobile emission policies, platinum is more resilient than palladium, and the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market may continue. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price was 537.50 yuan/gram, down 2.70 yuan; palladium's main contract closing price was 429.05 yuan/gram, down 4.60 yuan. The main contract holdings of platinum were 10,387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the main contract holdings of palladium were 3,179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 549.47 yuan/gram, up 5.48 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot average price was 420.00 yuan/gram, down 8.00 yuan. The platinum main contract basis was 11.97 yuan/gram, up 8.18 yuan; the palladium main contract basis was - 9.05 yuan/gram, down 3.40 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions were 9,966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium's CFTC non - commercial long positions were 3,003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total estimated supply of platinum in 2025 was 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total estimated supply of palladium in 2025 was 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total estimated demand for platinum in 2025 was 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total estimated demand for palladium in 2025 was 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 96.86, down 0.75; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.87%; the VIX volatility index was 17.36, down 0.40; the 1 - year inflation expectation was 3.5%, down 0.01. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The nuclear negotiation between Iran and the US in Oman ended, and both sides reached a consensus on continuing the dialogue. The Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson was "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook. The preliminary value of the US February University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index reached 57.3, a six - month high, and the 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, a one - year low. China's central bank increased its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, reaching 74.19 million ounces by the end of January 2026, up 40,000 ounces month - on - month. US President Trump signed an executive order threatening to impose tariffs on countries buying sanctioned Iranian goods and services. The US announced a temporary trade agreement framework with India, where India will cancel or reduce tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US will reduce the so - called "reciprocal tariff" on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - US January retail sales data at 21:30 on 02 - 10; US January non - farm payrolls data at 21:30 on 02 - 11; US January CPI data at 21:30 on 02 - 13. [2]