沪铜产业日报-20260210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side has a tight global copper concentrate situation, and the ore price strongly supports the copper price. The supply side may see a decline in domestic copper production due to raw material shortages and holiday factors. The demand side shows increasing purchasing and inquiry sentiment from downstream buyers and rising pre - holiday restocking intentions. Domestic copper inventories are seasonally accumulating. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreasing implied volatility. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 101,560 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 13,062 US dollars/ton, down 114.50 US dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 270 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 159,688 lots, down 9,925 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 60,697 lots, down 3,468 lots. The LME copper inventory is 184,300 tons, up 1,025 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 248,911 tons, up 15,907 tons; the LME copper canceled warrants are 19,475 tons, up 175 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 165,939 tons, down 2,856 tons; the COMEX copper inventory is 590,211 short tons, up 1,130 short tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,725 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,860 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 44 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 37.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 165 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 77.37 US dollars/ton, down 6.42 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.80 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 52.37 US dollars/kiloton, down 2.53 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 92,190 yuan/metal ton, up 240 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 92,890 yuan/metal ton, up 240 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 2,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the northern processing fee is 1,800 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan. The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,190 yuan/ton, up 1,400 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,300 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan, up 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8,278.814 billion yuan, up 419.724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 44.50%, down 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 36.57%, down 0.26%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 26.52%, down 0.0377%; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.48, down 0.0460 [2] 3.7 Industry News - President Xi Jinping inspected the National Information and Technology Innovation Park in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological self - reliance. The Ministry of Commerce held a symposium on automobile enterprises to promote automobile consumption. Fed's Bostic said there is doubt about the confidence in the US dollar. The US White House's Hasset said US employment growth may slow, and the market expects about 70,000 new jobs in the January non - farm payroll report [2]