建信期货棉花日报-20260211

Report Overview - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: February 11, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoint - The fundamentals of the cotton market have limited changes, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating in a narrow range [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Domestic Spot Market: The latest 328-grade cotton price index is 15,988 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis of machine-picked 31-grade double 29/impurity 3 in southern Xinjiang's Kashi is mostly above CF05+1000, and in northern Xinjiang, it is mostly above 1200. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has weakened, with small-scale restocking by traders and some fabric factories. Yarn mills' quotes are basically stable, while traders' quotes are slightly weak. As the Chinese New Year approaches, yarn mills are stocking up, and the mainland's operating rate continues to decline. The new orders of cotton fabric factories have decreased, the operating rate has gradually declined, and the finished product inventory remains at a relatively high level [7] - International Market: As of the week of February 6, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton is 2.9894 million tons, accounting for 98.7% of the estimated U.S. cotton production for the year, 6% slower than the same period last year. The inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton is 290,530 tons, with an inspection progress of 98.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 5%; the inspection volume of Pima cotton is 84,100 tons, with an inspection progress of 99.5%, 17% slower than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the February supply and demand report [8] - Domestic Market: As of February 9, the cumulative public inspection of national cotton is 7.4646 million tons, an increase of 11,900 tons from the previous day. As of the end of January, the commercial inventory of cotton is 5.7887 million tons, an increase of 42,000 tons year-on-year. After the peak of the listing, the commercial inventory will enter a downward trend from seasonal accumulation. The current mismatch between the output increase and the inventory accumulation amplitude still makes the expectation of tight inventory at the end of the cotton year exist. On the demand side, the spot trading has basically stagnated, there is only a small amount of spot shipment in the market, and the operating rate continues to decline [8] 2. Industry News - According to the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab), as of the week of February 7, the planting rate of cotton in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 88.1%, 78.6% in the previous week, 87.4% in the same period last year, and the five-year average is 62.3% [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF contract spreads, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as USD/CNY and USD/INR [17][18][20][26][28]