建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260211

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market's driving force may shift from cost support to the weak industrial reality. With downstream industries entering the holiday season and purchasing power weakening, the self - driving force of polyolefin remains weak. The short - term geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and the correlation between polyolefin and oil prices is high. [6] - Short - term attention should be paid to the pulse market that may be brought by uncertain factors such as the Middle East situation. Seize the opportunity of rising oil prices to short. During the price decline, focus on the structural arbitrage opportunities arising from the differentiation of supply pressure between PP and PE. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - L2605 opened lower, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed higher at 6775 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.24%), with a trading volume of 280,000 lots and a decrease of 5,995 lots in positions to 512,614 lots. PP2605 closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (0.44%), with a decrease of 1,773 lots in positions to 488,600 lots. [6] 3.2 Industry News - On February 10, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 460,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons (8.00%) from the previous working day. The inventory on the 22nd day of the 12th lunar month last year was 475,000 tons. [7] - The PE market price continued to decline weakly. The LLDPE price in North China was 6,570 - 6,900 yuan/ton, 6,600 - 7,000 yuan/ton in East China, and 6,800 - 7,100 yuan/ton in South China. [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6,400 - 6,480 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The market supply had no obvious pressure, the production enterprises' shipments were okay, and the overall intention to stabilize the market was strong. Downstream factories' stocking was gradually completed, mainly for rigid demand procurement, and the overall market transaction was relatively stable. [7] - The PP market price was mostly sorted out. The mainstream price of drawn wire in North China was 6,460 - 6,570 yuan/ton, 6,540 - 6,650 yuan/ton in East China, and 6,630 - 6,810 yuan/ton in South China. [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information. [9][12][17]