建信期货生猪日报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market shows an increase in both supply and demand before the Spring Festival, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and the spot price is mainly in a weak - oscillating state. The futures market has sufficient production capacity, and the pig supply is expected to increase slightly. Fattened pigs from secondary fattening still need to be sold after the festival, which will continue to put pressure on the market. After the festival, it is the consumption off - season, so the 03/05 contracts are mainly in a weak - oscillating state [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 10th, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then oscillated downwards, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 11,575 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,470 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 5,429 lots to 316,097 lots [10] - Spot Market: On the 10th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [10] - Supply - side: Currently, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens is relatively high year - on - year, and there are still pigs to be sold before the festival. In February, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 17.73% month - on - month. Affected by the reduction in sales days during the holiday, the daily average increased by 21.44% month - on - month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm of the breeding side to sell pigs has increased, and the sales rhythm has accelerated [11] - Demand - side: Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Around the traditional Chinese minor New Year, the terminal's Spring Festival stocking has increased significantly, which is also the last wave of peak demand before the festival. The consumption demand has increased, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased significantly. On February 10th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 276,000 heads, an increase of 24,000 heads compared to the previous day, 84,000 heads week - on - week, and 85,000 heads month - on - month [11] 3.2 Industry News - As of February 5th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.08 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg week - on - week. The cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling them was 12.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg week - on - week [12][13] 3.3 Data Overview - As of February 5th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was 37 yuan/head, a decrease of 9 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 24.2 yuan/head, a decrease of 10.3 yuan/head week - on - week [16] - In the week of February 5th, the average market sales price of 6.5 - kg piglets was 366 yuan/head, a decrease of 1 yuan/head compared to the previous week [16] - In the week of February 5th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.40 kg, a decrease of 0.46 kg compared to the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.36%), a decrease of 1.14 kg compared to the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%), and an increase of 3.22 kg compared to the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 2.59%) [16] - In the week of February 5th, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.93 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin week - on - week [16] - The cost of purchasing 110 - kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg this week was 11.86 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.48 yuan/kg compared to the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 - kg pigs and fattening them to 150 kg was 12.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/kg compared to the previous week [16]