油脂油料早报-20260211

Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's February supply - demand report shows stable data for the US 2025/26 soybean year, while Brazil's soybean production estimate has increased, and global soybean production and ending stocks are also expected to rise. Malaysia's palm oil inventory decreased in January due to strong exports despite lower production, and the decline is expected to continue. Global rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal production and ending stocks are projected to increase in the 2025/26 year [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 2025/26 US Soybean Information - The USDA's February report estimates the US 2025/26 soybean production at 4.262 billion bushels, exports at 1.575 billion bushels, and ending stocks at 350 million bushels, all unchanged from January estimates [1] 3.2 2025/26 Global Soybean Information - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production estimate is 180 million tons (up from 178 million tons in January), with exports estimated at 114 million tons (unchanged from January). Argentina's production is estimated at 48.5 million tons and exports at 8.25 million tons, both unchanged from January. Global 2025/26 soybean production estimate is 428.18 million tons (up from 425.68 million tons in January), and ending stocks are estimated at 125.51 million tons (up from 124.41 million tons in January) [1] 3.3 Brazil's Soybean Harvest and Export - As of the week of February 7, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 17.4%, up from 11.2% the previous week, compared to 14.8% the previous year and a five - year average of 18.7%. Anec predicts Brazil's February soybean exports to reach 1.171 million tons (up from the previous week's forecast of 1.142 million tons) and February soybean meal exports to reach 193,000 tons (up from 163,000 tons) [1] 3.4 Malaysia's Palm Oil Information - ITS data shows Malaysia's February 1 - 10 palm oil exports decreased 10.5% month - on - month; AmSpec data shows a 14.3% decrease. MPOB data shows Malaysia's January palm oil inventory decreased 7.72% to 2.82 million tons (the lowest since October 2025), production decreased 13.78% to 1.58 million tons (the lowest since March 2025), and exports increased 11.44% to 1.48 million tons (the highest since October 2025) [1] 3.5 Global Rapeseed and Related Products in 2025/26 - Global 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 95.022 million tons (up 9.024 million tons year - on - year), ending stocks at 12.104 million tons (up 2.215 million tons). Rapeseed oil production is expected to be 35.68 million tons (up 1.511 million tons), ending stocks at 3.237 million tons (up 0.029 million tons). Rapeseed meal production is expected to be 50.952 million tons (up 1.884 million tons), ending stocks at 1.518 million tons (up 0.079 million tons). Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed exports are expected to be 7.6 million tons (down 1.731 million tons), rapeseed oil exports at 3.525 million tons (up 0.185 million tons), and rapeseed meal exports at 5.85 million tons (up 0.051 million tons) [1] 3.6 Spot Prices - Spot prices for various products from February 4 - 10, 2026, are provided, including prices for soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [4] 3.7 Others - The report also mentions protein meal basis, grease basis, and grease and oilseed futures spreads, but no specific data is provided [5][7][10]