建信期货铝日报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices fluctuated within a narrow range during the day, with significantly lower volatility compared to the previous period. The main contract 2603 closed at 23,515, down slightly by 0.3%. The import window remained closed, with a theoretical loss of -2,300 yuan/ton for spot imports at the close. The cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with a negative AD - AL spread of -1,395 yuan/ton at the close. Alumina adjusted oscillatingly during the day, temporarily remaining above 2,800. As centralized maintenance ends, the industry's operating rate is expected to rise again. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and political disturbances in Guinea. There were limited changes in the electrolytic aluminum supply. Downstream industries have basically entered the holiday period, with the operating rate of processing enterprises decreasing. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased to 857,000 tons on Monday, with the inventory accumulation rate exceeding the seasonal level of previous years and reaching a three - year high. As the long holiday approaches, funds tend to be cautious, and the volatility of the non - ferrous sector has significantly decreased. The demand is in the off - season, and the high prices have suppressed demand, resulting in insufficient support. It should be treated as a short - term adjustment. As the long holiday is approaching, it is advisable to observe more and act less, and pay attention to macro - pricing and the realization of post - holiday demand expectations [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum price: The main 2603 contract closed at 23,515, down 0.3%. The import window remained closed with a theoretical loss of -2,300 yuan/ton for spot imports. The AD - AL spread of cast aluminum alloy was -1,395 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated above 2,800 [7] - Supply and demand: The electrolytic aluminum supply changed little. Downstream industries were in the holiday, and the operating rate of processing enterprises declined. The social inventory of aluminum ingots reached 857,000 tons on Monday, with inventory accumulation exceeding the seasonal level of previous years [7] - Suggestion: As the long holiday approaches, funds are cautious, the non - ferrous sector's volatility decreases, and demand support is insufficient. It should be treated as a short - term adjustment. Observe more and act less, and focus on macro - pricing and post - holiday demand expectations [7] 3.2. Industry News - Mozambique: The government is making every effort to ensure the continued operation of South32's Mozal aluminum smelter. South32 plans to maintain the plant by March due to a failure to reach a power supply agreement, incurring a one - off cost of $60 million [8] - Fujian: The Fujian Development and Reform Commission announced 1,570 provincial key projects in 2026, with a total investment of 4.01 trillion yuan and an annual planned investment of 722.6 billion yuan. There are 6 aluminum - related projects [10] - "Aluminum Replacing Copper": 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards. Some brands plan to launch aluminum household air - conditioning products in 2026, while others have no such plans [10] - Rio Tinto: It will cut the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% from October 2026 to extend its operation until 2035. This will reduce the annual alumina production by about 1.2 million tons and affect about 180 jobs [10] - India: National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, increasing the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10]