镍日报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices adjusted with reduced volatility during the day. The main contract 2603 closed at 133,350 yuan/ton, slightly down 0.19%. Due to the rainy season in the Philippines and policy disturbances in Indonesia, overseas nickel ore prices have risen significantly. Considering the expanding smelting capacity in Indonesia, the 250 million - ton quota may lead to a structural shortage of ore in 2026. The firm ore price provides cost support for high - nickel pig iron, with the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rising by 1 to 1043.5 yuan/nickel point. However, downstream enterprises have basically no restocking demand before the festival, and only a few traders have the psychology of hoarding goods due to bullish expectations. The gap between upstream and downstream intended prices has widened, and the pre - festival market is cold with few transactions. The price of nickel sulfate remained flat at 31,950 yuan/ton. The recent decline in nickel prices has weakened cost support, and some manufacturers have stocked up on Spring Festival raw materials, with a low acceptance of high - priced nickel salts. Affected by macro - sentiment and the long - holiday factor, pre - festival funds tend to be cautious, leading to a reduced - volatility adjustment of nickel prices. Attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia and the actual implementation of the quota, and be vigilant against uncertainties such as the final approved total being temporarily increased due to smelter pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Nickel prices adjusted with reduced volatility. The main contract 2603 closed at 133,350 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Overseas nickel ore prices rose due to the rainy season in the Philippines and policy disturbances in Indonesia. The 250 million - ton quota may cause a structural ore shortage in 2026. High - nickel pig iron price got cost support, but the pre - festival market was cold. Nickel sulfate price remained flat, and cost support weakened. Pre - festival funds were cautious, and nickel prices adjusted with reduced volatility. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and quota implementation [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - Vale's nickel production in 2025 reached 177,000 tons, the highest since 2022, a year - on - year increase of 10.69%, higher than the 2025 industrial guidance. The fourth - quarter production was 46,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The company expects its 2026 nickel production to be between 175,000 - 200,000 tons [8][10]. - First Quantum Minerals Ltd. announced its 2025 preliminary production data and 2026 - 2028 production, cost, and capital expenditure guidelines. Its 2025 copper production was about 396,000 tons, within the revised guidance range; gold production was about 152,000 ounces, higher than the upper limit of the guidance; and Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. The company slightly lowered its 2026 - 2027 copper and gold production guidelines, kept the nickel production guideline unchanged, expected higher unit copper cash cost and AISC, and raised the 2026 capital expenditure guideline. The Panama government agreed to process Cobre Panamá inventory ore [10]. - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association expects the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 to be about 340 - 350 million tons. On January 14, 2026, the Director of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said that this year's nickel ore production quota (RKAB) would be strategically adjusted to 250 - 260 million tons. The ESDM has allowed the existing quota to be extended until March 31, 2026, but the annual actual supply still depends on later government evaluation and quota addition [10].