原油成品油早报-20260211

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to the Iran situation, with the monthly spread declining and the North Sea Brent basis falling to $1.005 per barrel. The US and Iran held nuclear negotiations on Friday, which lasted about 6 hours. Iran said it was a good start, but there is still a long way to rebuild trust, and the negotiations are limited to nuclear issues. A second round of US - Iran negotiations is expected to be held in the next few days. [4] - From a fundamental perspective, the global total oil inventory decreased this week. US commercial crude oil inventory reflected the impact of the cold wave, with a decrease of 3.455 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 5.553 million barrels. Saudi Arabia set the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for March to Northwest Europe at a discount of $0.65 per barrel to the ICE Brent crude oil settlement price and lowered the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for March to Asia by 30 cents per barrel. [4] - In Singapore, all refined oil products saw inventory accumulation, while in ARA, crude oil inventory decreased, refined oil inventory decreased, and diesel and gasoline inventory increased. In China, both gasoline and diesel inventory increased. The main - refinery profit fluctuated at a high level with stronger operation, while the independent - refinery profit rebounded from a low level with decreased operation. [4] - Short - term oil prices are still affected by the Iran situation, and attention should be paid to volatility risks. The global crude oil supply - demand fundamentals in the first and second quarters remain in a surplus state, and the fundamentals do not support high valuations. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Price Data - From February 4th to February 10th, WTI decreased by $0.40, BRENT decreased by $0.24, and DUBAI decreased by $0.41. The BRENT 2 - month spread increased by $0.07, the WTI - BRENT spread decreased by $0.16, and the DUBAI - BRT spread increased by $0.29. [3] - SC increased by 11.90, OMAN decreased by 0.36, the SC - BRT spread increased by 2.02, and the SC - WTI spread increased by 2.18. Domestic gasoline price increased by 30.00, and the domestic gasoline - BRT spread increased by 47.00. [3] - The Singapore 380CST fuel oil premium increased by 0.85, the上期所FU main contract increased by 51, and the上期所FU - BRT spread increased by 9.48. The上期所BU main contract increased by 9, and the上期所BU - BRT spread increased by 3.51. HH natural gas decreased by 1.120, and BFO increased by 0.84. [3] 3.2 Daily News - US media reported that the Trump administration has discussed seizing more oil tankers transporting Iranian oil but has not taken action due to concerns about Iranian retaliation and the impact on the global oil market. Seizing tankers could be seen as an act of war, and Iran may respond by seizing tankers of US allies or laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, which could cause a sharp rise in oil prices. [3] - Iranian officials said that if the US - Iran nuclear negotiations are successful, the dialogue may be extended to other fields. The first - stage negotiations have made progress, and Iran is willing to continue if the negotiations are feasible. [3] - Trump said that if the negotiations fail, he may send a second aircraft carrier to strike Iran. [3] - The US government issued a general license allowing oilfield service companies to work in Venezuela, which is a new step in relaxing sanctions and promoting the reconstruction of the country's crude oil infrastructure. [3] 3.3 Inventory - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending February 6th was 13.4 million barrels, compared with a previous value of - 11.079 million barrels; API gasoline inventory was 3.3 million barrels, compared with a previous value of 4.736 million barrels; API refined oil inventory was - 2 million barrels, compared with a previous value of - 4.811 million barrels. [4] - According to the EIA report for the week ending January 30th, US crude oil exports decreased by 542,000 barrels per day to 4.047 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels to 13.215 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 0.82%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.802 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.94%; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.05%; and the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.201 million barrels per day, an increase of 559,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. [4]