大越期货棉花早报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is currently in a neutral state. The main cotton contract 05 is expected to move sideways around 14,500, with strong support near this level in the short term. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks before the festival, and adopt an intraday short - term trading strategy with a slightly bullish bias [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided in the report 3.2 Daily Tips - The cotton market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, downstream restocking before the Spring Festival, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period. Negative factors include a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [7][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Fundamental Data - In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be regulated, with a possible reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA's December report, the global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. In December, China's textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. China imported 180,000 tons of cotton in December, a year - on - year increase of 31%, and 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's December forecast for the 2025/2026 season, China's cotton production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. - The basis of cotton: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,988, and the basis for the 05 contract is 1,333, showing a premium over the futures, which is a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's December forecast for the 2025/2026 season shows an ending inventory of 8.35 million tons, which is a bearish factor [6]. - The 20 - day moving average of the cotton price is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, indicating a neutral situation [6]. - The main positions are bullish, with an increase in net long positions, but the main trend is not clear, which is a bullish signal [6]. - Position Data - No information provided in the report