大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260211

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Date: February 11, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Core Views - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support, but downstream demand is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival [4][7] - The main logic for both LLDPE and PP is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal changes are sensitive [6][8] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Crude oil has returned to a volatile state, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, most agricultural film and packaging film enterprises have shut down, with few orders. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6600 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -175, with a premium - discount ratio of -2.6%, which is bearish [4] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PE inventory is 40.3 tons (+5.4), which is bullish [4] Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [6] - Bearish factor: Weak downstream demand [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Near the Spring Festival, the overall start - up of plastic weaving has significantly declined, and pipe demand has also been affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6650 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] Basis Analysis - The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -38, with a premium - discount ratio of -0.6%, which is bearish [7] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PP inventory is 41.6 tons (+1.5), which is bullish [7] Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [7] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [8] - Bearish factor: Weak downstream demand [8] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and net import volume of polyethylene have changed. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [14] Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and net import volume of polypropylene have changed. The import dependence has generally decreased, and the consumption growth rate has also fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906 [16]