Report Date - The report is dated February 11, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report's Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are at a high level compared to the same period last year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to increase, and the comprehensive inventory is falling, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still acceptable, with good agricultural reserve demand. In terms of industrial demand, the demand for compound fertilizer is stable, while the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports. Recently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but the overall domestic urea supply still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2605 contract basis is 15, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.8%, which is bullish. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 billion tons (-0.5), which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral. The main position of UR is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4] - Bullish factors include inventory de - stocking and good reserve demand; bearish factor is domestic oversupply. The main logics are international prices and domestic demand marginal changes [5] Summary by Relevant Catalog Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are high year - on - year. With maintenance return, operating rate will rise. Comprehensive inventory is falling, and de - stocking is obvious. Near Spring Festival, order demand is okay, agricultural reserve demand is good. Compound fertilizer demand is stable in industrial demand, while melamine operating rate is falling. There is a large export price difference, but domestic supply still exceeds demand. Spot delivery price is 1800 (+10), and fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: UR2605 contract basis is 15, premium - discount ratio is 0.8%, bullish [4] - Inventory: UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 billion tons (-0.5), bullish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [4] - Main Position: The main position of UR is net short, and short positions are increasing, bearish [4] - Expectation: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with high operating rate year - on - year. Although it's near Spring Festival, downstream reserve demand is okay, and inventory is de - stocking [4] Spot and Futures | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot | Spot delivery product price is 1800 (+10), Shandong spot price is 1800 (+10), Henan spot price is 1800 (0), FOB China price is 3058 [6] | | Futures | 05 contract price is 1785 (-3), UR01 price is 1735 (-9), UR09 price is 1743 (-5). UR2605 contract basis is 15 (+13) [6] | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 11036 (+176), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 billion tons (-0.5), UR manufacturer inventory is 919 million tons, UR port inventory is 165 million tons [6] | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, urea capacity has been increasing, with growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence of PP has shown a downward trend from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 and then slightly increased to 9.5% in 2024. The consumption growth rate was 12.8% in 2019, 17.9% in 2020, 2.6% in 2021, 0.3% in 2022, 5.9% in 2023, and 8.4% in 2024 [9] - In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9]
大越期货尿素早报-20260211
Da Yue Qi Huo·2026-02-11 02:12