大越期货纯碱早报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high production, declining downstream demand, and high inventory. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, decreasing terminal demand, and high inventory at the same period [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1181 yuan/ton to 1171 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.85%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei decreased from 1125 yuan/ton to 1120 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.44%. The main basis decreased from - 56 yuan/ton to - 51 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.93% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash for North China ammonia - soda process is - 160.80 yuan/ton, and for East China co - production process is - 97 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 83.25% [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 77.43 tons, including 41.40 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there are plans for new soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the total new capacity is 640 tons; in 2024, it is 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.06% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 14.98 tons, and the operating rate is 71.86% [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 158.11 tons, an increase of 2.39% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The expected full - production time of the second - phase production line of Yuanning Energy is postponed [3]. - Negative factors: Enterprises' production lines are expected to resume production, and there is no new maintenance plan, so the production is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass has reduced production, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [5].