2026-02-11甲醇早报-20260211

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is expected to be range - bound this week. The inland market is entering the pre - holiday rest period, with demand shrinking and supply remaining sufficient. The port market is also expected to be range - bound at the bottom before the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce risk exposure [5]. - The MA2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 2210 - 2270 [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - The domestic methanol market is expected to be range - bound this week. The inland market is in the pre - holiday rest cycle. Demand from traditional downstream devices such as formaldehyde has decreased, and supply is sufficient with no obvious pressure. The port market is expected to be range - bound at the bottom before the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce risk exposure. The MA2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 2210 - 2270 [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - Likely to be bullish: Some plants are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventory is at a low level, a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has produced products, and there are plans to put into production a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong this month. Also, CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Likely to be bearish: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde is in the traditional off - season, MTBE production has declined significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling, and inventories in some plants in the production area have accumulated due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Spot market: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 682 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 263 US dollars/ton, the import cost is 2265 yuan/ton, CFR Southeast Asia is 324 US dollars/ton. The prices in different domestic regions have different changes, such as Jiangsu at 2210 yuan/ton, Shandong at 2310 yuan/ton, etc. [8]. - Futures market: The futures closing price is 2241 yuan/ton, the number of registered warrants is 7082, and the number of effective forecasts is 950 [8]. - Spread structure: The basis is - 31 yuan/ton, the import spread is 24 yuan/ton, and there are spreads between different regions and international prices [8]. - Operating rate: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, showing a decline compared with the previous period. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also decreased [8]. - Inventory situation: As of February 5, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 961,400 tons, with a slight decrease of 32,400 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 35,500 tons to 463,900 tons [5]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic plants: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance or planned maintenance, including those in the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions, with different production capacities and maintenance time ranges [58]. - Overseas plants: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operating conditions, such as some in the process of restarting, some operating normally, and some under maintenance [59]. - Olefin plants: Olefin plants in different regions also have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned production [60].