大越期货豆粕早报2026-02-11-20260211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - For soybean meal (M2605): The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is neutral, with the U.S. soybeans' short - term range - bound movement influenced by USDA report data and technical factors. In China, the soybean meal market is affected by U.S. soybean trends, end - of - year demand, and news. The basis is positive, but inventory, price position relative to the 20 - day moving average, and主力持仓suggest a downward bias [9]. - For soybeans (A2605): The price is expected to fluctuate between 4420 - 4520. The market is neutral, with U.S. soybeans waiting for further guidance on trade agreements and South American weather. The domestic soybean market is supported by strong spot prices and short - term demand, but also affected by trade agreements and Brazilian imports. The basis is negative, and inventory is a negative factor, while price position relative to the 20 - day moving average and主力持仓are positive [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hint - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - U.S. tariff negotiation is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchases and U.S. soybean weather are still uncertain. The U.S. soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark. - China's import of soybeans will continue to decline in Q1. Oil mills' soybean inventory remained high in January. With relatively normal weather for South American soybean planting and growth, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern. - Reduced pig - farming profits in China have led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, strong demand for soybean meal in January has supported its price. The combined influence of U.S. soybean trends and the recovery of soybean meal demand has maintained the range - bound pattern [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - U.S. trade agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans; domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in South American soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish factors: The total import volume of soybeans in China remained high in January; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the impact of U.S. soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - U.S. trade agreement [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expectation of increased domestic demand for soybeans supports the price [15]. - Bearish factors: Brazil's bumper soybean harvest and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation [15]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the impact of U.S. soybean weather and the game of Sino - U.S. trade tariffs [15]. 4. Fundamental Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data | Date | Soybean Meal Transaction Price | Soybean Meal Transaction Volume (10,000 tons) | Rapeseed Meal Transaction Price | Rapeseed Meal Transaction Volume (10,000 tons) | Price Difference between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Feb 2 | 3148 | 14.31 | 2460 | 0 | 688 | | Feb 3 | 3126 | 15.08 | 2450 | 0 | 676 | | Feb 4 | 3117 | 26.17 | 2450 | 0 | 667 | | Feb 5 | 3120 | 11.22 | 2430 | 0.5 | 690 | | Feb 6 | 3121 | 7.93 | 2440 | 3 | 681 | | Feb 9 | 3121 | 5.03 | 2430 | 0 | 691 | | Feb 10 | 3118 | 6.07 | 2430 | 0 | 691 | [16] Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices | Date | Soybean No.1 Futures (2605) | Soybean No.2 Futures (2605) | Soybean Meal Futures (2605) | Soybean Meal Futures (2609) | Soybean No.1 Spot (Jiamusi) | Soybean No.2 Spot (Duty - paid price) | Soybean Meal Spot (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Feb 3 | 4384 | 3468 | 2727 | 2841 | 4400 | 3486 (Brazil) | 3020 | | Feb 4 | 4375 | 3473 | 2723 | 2839 | 4400 | 3482 (Brazil) | 3010 | | Feb 5 | 4382 | 3468 | 2731 | 2854 | 4400 | 3499 (Brazil) | 3020 | | Feb 6 | 4378 | 3468 | 2735 | 2858 | 4400 | 3520 (Brazil) | 3030 | | Feb 9 | 4383 | 3471 | 2729 | 2857 | 4400 | 3540 (Brazil) | 3020 | | Feb 10 | 4499 | 3468 | 2734 | 2858 | 4400 | 3530 (Brazil) | 3020 | [18] Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics | Date | Soybean No.1 Warehouse Receipts (Change from previous day) | Soybean No.2 Warehouse Receipts (Change from previous day) | Soybean Meal Warehouse Receipts (Change from previous day) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jan 30 | 25662 (0) | 0 (0) | 33428 (0) | | Feb 2 | 25548 (- 114) | 0 (0) | 33428 (0) | | Feb 3 | 25548 (0) | 0 (0) | 33428 (0) | | Feb 4 | 25548 (0) | 0 (0) | 36228 (+2800) | | Feb 5 | 25548 (0) | 700 (+700) | 36228 (0) | | Feb 6 | 25338 (- 210) | 700 (0) | 36228 (0) | | Feb 9 | 25338 (0) | 700 (0) | 36180 (- 48) | | Feb 10 | 25338 (0) | 700 (0) | 36180 (0) | [20] Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Global: From 2016 - 2025, data on harvest area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [32]. - Domestic: From 2016 - 2025, data on harvest area, beginning inventory, production, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [33]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Other Information - U.S. soybean weekly export inspection decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans was low at the beginning of the year and decreased year - on - year recently [47]. - Oil mills' soybean inventory continued to decline, while soybean meal inventory rebounded from a low level [48]. - Oil mills' soybean crushing volume returned to a high level, and the soybean meal production in December increased year - on - year [50]. - Oil mills' unfulfilled contracts continued to decline, and the stocking demand weakened [52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated downward following U.S. soybeans, and the margin on the futures market fluctuated slightly [54]. - The inventory of live hogs increased slightly year - on - year, while the inventory of sows decreased year - on - year and declined slightly month - on - month [56]. - The price of live hogs fluctuated slightly recently, and the price of piglets rebounded slightly [58]. - The proportion of large hogs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live hogs continued to rise [60]. - The profit of domestic pig - farming was slightly positive [62]. - The pig - to - grain ratio and the feed - to - meat ratio dropped to a low level [64].