大越期货菜粕早报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2230 - 2290. Affected by factors such as the improvement of China - Canada trade relations and the entry into the off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, after the overall negative factors are digested, it will maintain a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 fluctuates in the range of 2230 - 2290. The spot demand for rapeseed meal enters the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to be good. In the short term, it is affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations and is weak in shock, but in the medium term, it maintains range - bound [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the long - holiday off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China - Canada trade issues, reducing the expected domestic supply [11]. - The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has improved China - Canada trade relations in the short term, and the import of Canadian rapeseed by China is expected to resume [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: Good demand for Chinese rapeseed meal is expected after the Spring Festival, and oil mills have no inventory pressure [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the short - term off - season, and China is about to resume importing Canadian rapeseed due to improved trade relations [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of imported Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Base difference: The spot price is 2430, and the base difference is 186, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: The total domestic inventory of rapeseed meal is 43.78 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6% from last week's 44.95 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.79% compared with 50.2 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - Domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet: Data from 2016 - 2025 show changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [19]. - Domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet: Data from 2016 - 2025 show changes in initial inventory, output, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [21]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is bearish [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Price and Related Data - Rapeseed meal and soybean meal transaction average price and spread: The data from February 2 to 10 show the transaction average price, trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the spread between them [13]. - Rapeseed meal futures and spot price summary: The data from February 3 to 10 show the prices of rapeseed meal futures (main 2605, far - month 2609) and spot (Fujian) [15]. - Rapeseed meal warehouse receipt statistics: From February 2 to 10, the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. 3.7 Other Market Conditions - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuate at a low level, while the spot is relatively stable, and the spot premium remains at a relatively high level [22]. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot has narrowed, and the spread of the 2605 contract has fluctuated slightly [24]. - Imported rapeseed will start to arrive at ports in February, and the import cost has rebounded from a low level [27]. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remains low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is also at a low level [28]. - The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills has increased slightly while maintaining the startup [30]. - The price of aquatic fish has fluctuated slightly, and the price of shrimps and shellfish has remained stable [38].