大越期货沥青期货早报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The refinery reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - On the demand side, the overall demand is currently below the historical average. The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 1040.00% month - on - month, while the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit increased by 5.51% month - on - month. The difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The main risk points are the change in crude oil price trends and the trend of the profit difference between asphalt and coking products [13][14]. - The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 contract oscillating between 3309 - 3377 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The refinery reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - Demand: The overall demand is currently below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 4.6163%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 9%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 15%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was 88.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1040.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit was 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - Market Outlook: The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 contract oscillating between 3309 - 3377 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Price and Spread: The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and basis of various asphalt futures contracts, as well as some inter - month spreads [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; factory inventory was 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24% [9][17]. - Production and Sales: The weekly output of sample enterprises was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The weekly shipment volume was 211,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% [17]. - Profit: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 1040.00% month - on - month, while the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit increased by 5.51% month - on - month [17]. - Downstream Demand: The overall downstream demand is currently below the historical average, with varying degrees of decline in the开工率 of different types of asphalt [8].