大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The supply side shows a decline in production and imports, while the demand side is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 131,220 - 145,100 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [9][10]. Summary According to the Directory Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,744 tons, a 3.82% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average level. It is predicted that the production in February 2026 will be 81,930 tons, a 16.31% decrease compared to January 2026 [8]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,032 tons, a 1.84% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,243 tons, a 2.39% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 139,374 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.05%, resulting in a loss of 5,254 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 136,032 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 5,221 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On February 10, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 136,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 1,340 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 18,356 tons, a 3.40% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 43,657 tons, a 7.53% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 43,450 tons, a 9.25% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 105,463 tons, a 1.87% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [8]. - Market: The MA20 on the market is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. Fundamental/Positioning Data - Market Overview: The report provides price data of various lithium compounds and related products, including lithium spodumene, lithium mica, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries. It shows the price changes, such as the price of 6% lithium spodumene increasing by 0.16% to 1,900 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remaining unchanged at 137,000 yuan/ton [13]. - Supply - Demand Data: It presents detailed supply - demand data of the lithium carbonate industry, including production, import, export, inventory, and consumption. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in January 2026 was 97,900 tons, a 1.31% decrease compared to the previous month; the monthly import volume was 23,988.66 tons, an 8.77% increase compared to the previous month [15]. - Cost - Profit: The report analyzes the cost - profit situation of various lithium compounds, such as the cost - profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and the cost - profit of recycling and producing lithium carbonate from different types of black powder [43][45]. - Inventory: It shows the inventory data of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventories of smelters and downstream enterprises [51]. - Demand: It analyzes the demand situation of different application areas, such as power batteries, energy storage batteries, ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and new energy vehicles, including production, sales, and export data [53][55][57][65][69][76].