工业硅期货早报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply decreased last week, demand was persistently low, and the market is expected to oscillate between 8275 - 8475. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply and demand are both on a downward trend, and the market is predicted to oscillate between 47810 - 50090. The fundamental situation is also bearish [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 71,000 tons, a 13.41% week - on - week decrease [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 60,000 tons, a 20.00% week - on - week decrease. The demand remains sluggish [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9769.7 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On February 10th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 825 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 1.44% week - on - week increase; the sample enterprise inventory was 206,000 tons, a 1.43% week - on - week decrease; the main port inventory was 136,000 tons, a 1.44% week - on - week decrease, which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling has decreased and remains at a low level. The demand recovery is showing signs, and the cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2605 is expected to oscillate between 8275 - 8475 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output was 20,100 tons, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease. The scheduled output for February is predicted to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% month - on - month decrease compared to the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 10.38GW, a 11.65% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory was 283,200 tons, a 3.77% week - on - week increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is at a loss. The scheduled output for February is 45.31GW, a 1.34% month - on - month decrease compared to the previous month. The battery cell output in January was 41.44GW, a 11.37% month - on - month decrease. Last week, the inventory of the external sales factory of battery cells was 9.31GW, a 1.52% week - on - week increase. Currently, battery cell production is profitable. The scheduled output for February is 36.7GW, a 11.43% month - on - month decrease. The component output in January was 35.2GW, a 9.04% month - on - month decrease. The expected component output for February is 29.8GW, a 15.34% month - on - month decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% month - on - month decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 34.2GW, a 9.26% month - on - month increase. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 40,830 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,920 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On February 10th, the price of N - type dense material was 52,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4700 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [11]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 341,000 tons, a 2.40% week - on - week increase, at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [10]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling continues to decrease. The demand side shows continuous decreases in silicon wafer production, battery cell production, and component production. The overall demand shows continuous decline. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2605 is expected to oscillate between 47810 - 50090 [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - The report provides a large amount of data on industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures closing prices, spot prices, inventory, production, cost, etc. For example, in the industrial silicon market, the futures closing prices of various contracts showed different degrees of decline compared to the previous period, and the inventory and production data also changed [16][17].