铂钯金期货日报-20260211

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Near the holidays, the Asian market trading is light, and the platinum and palladium markets are oscillating within a narrow range, with volatility decreasing compared to the previous period [2]. - In the short - term, the trends of platinum and palladium may follow the rhythm of gold and silver. The core variables in the macro - aspect are the performance of US employment and inflation data. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium may have a phased catch - up opportunity under the boost of financial attributes [2]. - In the long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price is 551.15 yuan/gram, up 10.35 yuan; palladium's main contract closing price is 439.10 yuan/gram, up 7.25 yuan [2]. - Platinum's main contract position is 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; palladium's main contract position is 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 545.38 yuan/gram, down 4.09 yuan; the Yangtze River's palladium spot average price is 414.00 yuan/gram, down 6.00 yuan [2]. - Platinum's main contract basis is - 5.77 yuan/gram, down 14.44 yuan; palladium's main contract basis is - 25.10 yuan/gram, down 13.25 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2]. - The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 96.86, unchanged; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.84%, down 0.03% [2]. - The VIX volatility index is 17.79, up 0.43 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump may send another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if the negotiation with Iran fails [2]. - Fed officials have different views, but there is a strong consensus on the expectation of restarting interest rate cuts in the medium - term [2]. - US retail sales in December 2025 had zero growth month - on - month, weaker than the expected 0.4% increase, and core retail sales decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, against the expected 0.3% increase [2]. - COMEX gold's deliverable inventory decreased by more than 450,000 ounces, intensifying the shortage of deliverable resources [2]. 3.6 Key Attention - US January non - farm payroll data on February 11 at 21:30 [2]. - US January CPI data on February 13 at 21:30 [2]. 3.7 Price Range - London platinum has an upper resistance level of 2200 US dollars and a lower support level of 2000 US dollars; London palladium has an upper resistance level of 1800 US dollars and a lower support level of 1600 US dollars [2]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 contract may operate in the range of 460 - 600 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract may operate in the range of 400 - 460 yuan/gram [2].