瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic methanol production is expected to increase as the loss of production capacity from maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production. The inventory of inland production enterprises is expected to accumulate during the holiday due to the slow transfer of goods to the downstream. The port inventory of methanol increased slightly this week, and it may remain stable or increase during the Spring Festival. The domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate increased last week and is expected to continue rising. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2200 - 2300 in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2248 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 32 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The main contract's holding volume is 786,703 lots, down 20,668 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 121,881 lots, up 13,766 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,582, up 500 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1855 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 355 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 38 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 264 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 298 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.16 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.02 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 100.81 tons, down 6.48 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 40.29 tons, up 0.37 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 27.36 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import volume in the current month is 1.734 million tons, up 316,400 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 368,300 tons, down 55,800 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 92.26%, up 1.05% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 30.04%, down 3.28%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92%, unchanged. The operating rate of acetic acid is 81.72%, down 0.55%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, unchanged. The operating rate of olefins is 82.74%, up 1.87%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 851 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.72%, down 0.34%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.9%, down 0.15%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 24.84%, up 0.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.71%, up 0.77% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of February 11, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 340,300 tons, down 28,000 tons or 7.61% from the previous period; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 315,000 tons, up 28,000 tons or 9.75% from the previous period. Most enterprises in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have no inventory and are in a situation of queuing for loading. As of February 11, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports is 1.4322 million tons, up 21,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 36,600 tons, while that in South China decreased by 15,400 tons. As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 83.82%, up 1.86% [3]