瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260211

Report Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production to the low - production period, with the total supply showing a decline. Recently, both bonded and general trade warehouses at Qingdao Port have seen inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has increased compared to the previous period. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, downstream tire enterprises' production capacity utilization has declined, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 16,800 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,200 - 13,700 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. Summary of Each Section Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,575 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 240 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,445 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 215 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber's May - September contracts is 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the spread between 20 - number rubber's March - April contracts is - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [2]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 162,081 lots, an increase of 10,137 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 49,041 lots, an increase of 500 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 37,324 lots, a decrease of 1,689 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,513 lots, an increase of 612 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 112,570 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 50,803 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L rubber in the Shanghai market is 16,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,965 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,955 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,648 yuan/ton, an increase of 91 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 203 yuan/ton, a decrease of 124 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai smoked sheet rubber is 62.69 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.62 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai rubber sheet is 58.85 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.25 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The market reference price of Thai rubber latex is 60.5 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.5 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 19.93 tons, an increase of 3.05 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 tons, an increase of 9.41 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel radial tires is 60.7%, a decrease of 1.74 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel radial tires is 72.76%, a decrease of 2.08 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel radial tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 47.97 days, an increase of 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel radial tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.24 days, a decrease of 3.54 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel radial tires is 12.86 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel radial tires is 58.39 million pieces, an increase of 80,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 21.46%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 18%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 24.57%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.56%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In January 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 39% [2]. - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons, or 2.55% [2]. - As of February 4, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel radial tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel radial tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points [2].