合成橡胶产业日报-20260211

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - holiday procurement is basically over, with most sample production enterprises' inventories and the overall sample trading enterprises' inventories decreasing slightly. It is expected that the inventories of both production and trading enterprises will increase in the short term. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined as some enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Many all - steel tire enterprises will enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10th, and semi - steel tire enterprises will mainly shut down from February 13th to February 15th, so the short - term capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may further decline. [2] - The br2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,500 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 13,020 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 160 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 24,037, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,421. [2] - The synthetic rubber 3 - 4 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 14,580 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong and from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,700 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 420 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 68.8 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.96 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 US dollars. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 690 US dollars per ton, with no week - on - week change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 612.38 US dollars per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 14.5 US dollars. [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,270 US dollars per ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 10,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 75 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons per week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 73.12%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.86 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refining atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.68%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 143,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 13,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 78.86%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.48 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 33,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons. [2] - The weekly ending inventory of manufacturers' cis - butadiene rubber is 27,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 550 tons; the weekly ending inventory of traders' cis - butadiene rubber is 6,030 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 750 tons. [2] - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.76%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 60.7%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.74 percentage points. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million, with a month - on - month increase of 80,000. [2] - The weekly ending inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.97 days, with a week - on - week increase of 1.19 days; the weekly ending inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.24 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.54 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of February 4th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points. Some enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state at the end of January, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In January, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 1.499 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons (4.41%) and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 75.97%, a month - on - month increase of 3.19 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.58 percentage points. [2] - As of February 4th, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons (3.78%). Recently, there were few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the supply remained high. The pre - holiday procurement was basically over, some traders sold at a discount to recover funds, and new transactions decreased. [2]