瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - On Wednesday, the I2605 contract reduced positions and consolidated. Macroeconomically, US President Trump is considering sending another US aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East for possible military action if negotiations with Iran fail. In terms of supply and demand, the shipping and arrival volumes of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was stable, and molten iron production remained below 2.3 million tons. Iron ore port inventory reached a new high. Overall, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, steel mills have less restocking demand. Recently, Australia was affected by a hurricane, and the shipping volume decreased significantly. At the same time, the central bank's report reiterated moderate easing, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 762.50 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 506,957 hands, down 6,983 hands; the I 5 - 9 contract spread is 17.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 22,383 hands, down 5,244 hands; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt of I is 2,900 hands, unchanged; the Singapore iron ore main contract's 15:00 quote is 99.9 US dollars/ton, down 0.28 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 823 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 812 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 723 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 49 yuan, up 2 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 100.20 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.23, down 0.03; the estimated import cost is 801 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) is 2,535.30 million tons, down 559.30 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,455.60 million tons, down 213.60 million tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,914.68 million tons, up 156.42 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 10,316.64 million tons, up 348.05 million tons; the iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,965.00 million tons, up 911.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) is 32 days, up 3 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 38.51 million tons, down 1.05 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 61.27%, down 1.67%; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.07 million tons, down 2.71 million tons; the BDI index is 1,882.00, down 13.00; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 22.35 US dollars/ton, down 0.64 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 7.944 US dollars/ton, down 0.12 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 79.55%, up 0.53%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.71%, up 0.26%; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.22%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.80%, down 0.18%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 19.68%, up 0.18%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 18.12%, down 0.47% [2] Industry News - From February 2nd to February 8th, 2026, Mysteel's global iron ore shipping volume was 2,535.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 559.3 million tons. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 1,948.9 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,455.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 213.6 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,361.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 123.4 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,264.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24.7 million tons. Australia's shipping volume was 1,279.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 540.6 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,097.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 521.6 million tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 669.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31.5 million tons [2]