黑色产业链日报-20260211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Steel: Before the Spring Festival, terminal demand for steel shrinks, trading is lackluster, inventory accumulation of rebar accelerates year - on - year, and hot - rolled coil shifts from inventory reduction to accumulation. The fundamentals are weakening. Blast furnace profits are stable, leading to stable output, while EAF output is likely to significantly reduce. Supply is relatively stronger than demand, and falling raw material prices further suppress the market, though cost and policy provide support at the bottom [3]. - Iron Ore: On the supply side, overseas shipments of iron ore decline seasonally, and the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere may affect Australian ore shipments. On the demand side, steel mills' restocking is nearly complete, hot - metal production is expected to rise, but it's the off - season for terminal consumption. Port inventories are accumulating above the seasonal norm, with high inventory pressure, and reduced market risk appetite is suppressing prices [23]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Before the festival, domestic coking coal mines reduce production, leading to a seasonal contraction in coking coal supply. Imported coal arrivals are at a low level, and there is an inverted price difference between domestic and international markets. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, improving coking profits. Coke production is expected to pick up, and steel mills'复产 is leading to a slow increase in demand. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the post - festival resumption of production rhythm is the key factor to watch [34]. - Ferroalloys: Both silicon manganese and silicon iron face a game between cost support and downstream terminal inventory accumulation. Manganese ore prices are firm, providing bottom - line support. Ferroalloy profits have rebounded but are still in the red, and production remains low. Steel mills'复产 may drive demand, but the off - season for downstream steel consumption limits demand growth. Silicon manganese has a large inventory base and high de - stocking pressure, while the fundamentals of silicon iron are slightly better [48]. - Soda Ash: The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken, and its price is oscillating weakly, with industrial contradictions still accumulating. If the futures price rises, there is some restocking space for mid - stream players such as futures - cash arbitrageurs, but the demand elasticity is limited. The downward price space needs to be opened up by inventory accumulation. In terms of supply - demand, with the release of new production capacities, daily soda ash output is at a high level, and the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain high. The inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, daily melting is temporarily stable, and overall rigid demand is weakening. The heavy - soda balance remains in surplus. Soda ash exports remain high, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [67]. - Glass: Market news indicates that due to environmental protection pressure, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe may be cold - repaired before the Spring Festival, with a total daily melting capacity of 2,700 tons. Coupled with the 1,200 - ton cold - repair of Dongtai Zhongbo last week and the expected 1,000 - ton cold - repair of Deyang Xinyi before the Spring Festival, float glass will experience concentrated cold - repair before the Spring Festival, which is slightly beyond expectations. The daily melting capacity will drop to around 146,000 - 147,000 tons. Although there are many new production lines to be ignited in Shahe, the earliest they can be implemented is after the Spring Festival, and it will take months to produce products. The pre - festival concentrated cold - repair helps relieve the inventory and spot pressure after the Spring Festival. Float glass is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the high inventory in the middle - stream is a risk point. If a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be large [91]. Summary by Related Categories Steel - Price Data: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3132 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3054 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3103 yuan/ton. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3273 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3228 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3247 yuan/ton. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in various regions remained stable compared to the previous day [4][9][12]. - Ratio and Spread Data: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4, and the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2. The 01 - 05 month spread of rebar was 78, and that of hot - rolled coil was 45 [4][20]. Iron Ore - Price Data: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of iron ore 01 contract was 733.5 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 762.5 yuan/ton, and 09 contract was 745 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 31 yuan/ton, 05 basis was 1.5 yuan/ton, and 09 basis was 19 yuan/ton [24]. - Fundamental Data: As of February 6, 2026, the daily average hot - metal output was 228.58 tons, the port desilting volume of 45 ports was 341.08 tons, the apparent demand of five major steel products was 761 tons, the global shipment volume was 2535.3 tons, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 1881.1 tons, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2361.3 tons, the inventory at 45 ports was 17140.71 tons, the inventory of 247 steel mills was 10316.64 tons, and the available days for 247 steel mills were 36.55 days [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - Price and Spread Data: On February 11, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was - 173.5, the 05 - 09 spread was - 80, and the 01 - 05 spread was 253.5. The 09 - 01 spread of coke was - 90, the 05 - 09 spread was - 75, and the 01 - 05 spread was 165. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions showed different degrees of change compared to the previous day and the previous week [35][37][38]. - Profit Data: The on - disk coking profit was - 37 yuan/ton, the main ore - coke ratio was 0.457, the main rebar - coke ratio was 1.832, and the main coke - coal ratio was 1.474 [37]. Ferroalloys - Silicon Iron: On February 10, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 40, the 01 - 05 spread was 144, the 05 - 09 spread was - 60, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 84. The spot prices in different regions showed a slight decline compared to the previous week [49]. - Silicon Manganese: On February 11, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176, the 01 - 05 spread was 104, the 05 - 09 spread was - 42, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 62. The spot prices in various regions remained stable [50][52]. Soda Ash - Price and Spread Data: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1178 yuan/ton, 09 contract was 1240 yuan/ton, and 01 contract was 1288 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 62, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 48, and the 1 - 5 month spread was 110. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions remained stable [68]. - Production and Inventory Data: The daily production of soda ash is at a high level, the inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, and the rigid demand is weakening. Soda ash exports remain high [67]. Glass - Price and Spread Data: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1087 yuan/ton, 09 contract was 1189 yuan/ton, and 01 contract was 1226 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 102, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 37, and the 1 - 5 month spread was 139 [92]. - Production and Sales Data: The daily production and sales data of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed fluctuations in the recent period [92].