瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20260211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to active replenishment by non-aluminum downstream last week, liquid caustic soda plant inventories were seasonally reduced, but inventory pressure remains high. Shandong chlor-alkali profits decreased month-on-month and entered a state of theoretical loss. Currently, there are still few maintenance plans for chlor-alkali plants, and there is no signal of production reduction in the industry, so the high operating rate is expected to continue in the short term. In February, some alumina enterprises will undergo maintenance due to factors such as environmental protection and flexible production, and the consumption of the alumina industry is expected to decline marginally. As the Spring Festival approaches, some non-aluminum downstream enterprises will gradually take holidays and stop work, leading to a seasonal decline in non-aluminum demand for caustic soda. Today, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong turned negative, deepening the theoretical loss of Shandong chlor-alkali, and strengthening the cost support for caustic soda. With the game between weak supply and demand and cost support, caustic soda is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The daily range of SH2603 is expected to be around 1900 - 2000, and the daily range of SH2605 is expected to be around 2120 - 2200 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 1954 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; the trading volume was 260,268 lots, a decrease of 187,719 lots; the open interest was 112,328 lots, a decrease of 20,346 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts was -17,061 lots, a decrease of 9 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan [3] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 590 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan, and the converted 100% caustic soda price was 1844 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan. The price in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was -110 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 237.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2555 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry News - From January 30 to February 5, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. From January 31 to February 6, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.71% month-on-month to 84.06%. From January 30 to February 5, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 88.43% month-on-month, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 22.74% month-on-month to 27.91%. As of February 5, SH2603 fluctuated strongly and closed at 1954 yuan/ton. Last week, the operating loads of plants in Central and South China increased, while those in North, East, and Southwest China decreased slightly, and the average operating rate of caustic soda in the whole country changed little. Affected by the maintenance of some domestic alumina plants, the alumina operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the whole country was 471,400 wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.41% and a year-on-year increase of 2.97%. From January 30 to February 5, the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali was -3 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 121 yuan/ton [3]