纯碱、玻璃日报-20260212

1. Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: February 12, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - Soda Ash: The current soda ash market is under continuous pressure, with the main contradiction being the structural imbalance of continuous supply expansion and relatively shrinking demand. Although the inventory level is in the lower - middle range in the past year, the subsequent inventory accumulation trend is expected to continue, and the oversupply pattern has not been fundamentally alleviated. In the short term, the market may be mainly in wide - range fluctuations; in the long - term, there is still downward price pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies, and currently, it is advisable to stay cautious and observe [8]. - Glass: The glass market is operating under the marginal cost pricing logic in the context of "weak supply and demand". The spot price fluctuates around the cost line, restricted by high inventory and pending production capacity above and the possible cold - repair wave of production lines due to industry losses below. Currently, the price trend is more driven by sentiment, and the price has limited room to fall further. In the long - term, with the relatively loose domestic monetary policy and the expectation of post - Spring Festival policy support for the real estate market, there may be a strong trend in the future. The subsequent focus is on the actual progress of production line cold - repairs and the marginal changes in supply and demand [9]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Soda Ash Futures Data on February 11: The opening price of SA605 was 1171, the highest was 1184, the lowest was 1162, the closing price was 1178, with a change of 0 and a change rate of 0%. The opening price of SA609 was 1233, the highest was 1246, the lowest was 1227, the closing price was 1240, with a change of - 1 and a change rate of - 0.08%. The持仓 volume of SA605 was 117.97 million lots, with a decrease of 6514 lots, and that of SA609 was 18.00 million lots, with a decrease of 3256 lots [7]. - Soda Ash Market Analysis: The main contract SA605 fluctuated on February 11. The supply - demand fundamentals showed continuous pressure, with supply expansion and demand contraction. The inventory accumulation trend is expected to continue, and the cost support is weakening. Short - term wide - range fluctuations, long - term downward pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies and currently observe [8]. - Glass Futures Data on February 11: The opening price of FG605 was 1070, the highest was 1082, the lowest was 1062, the closing price was 1071, with a change of - 8 and a change rate of - 0.74%. The opening price of FG609 was 1160, the highest was 1178, the lowest was 1158, the closing price was 1168, with a change of - 4 and a change rate of - 0.34%. The持仓 volume of FG605 was 108.58 million lots, with an increase of 4514 lots, and that of FG609 was 18.37 million lots, with an increase of 6979 lots [7]. - Glass Market Analysis: The main contract FG2605 fluctuated weakly. The market operates under the "weak supply and demand" marginal cost pricing logic. The spot price fluctuates around the cost line, restricted by inventory and production capacity above and the possible cold - repair wave below. Currently, the price is sentiment - driven, with limited downward space. In the long - term, there may be policy support, and the focus is on production line cold - repairs and supply - demand changes [9]. 4.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda ash market price, and flat glass output, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][17][20]