建信期货油脂日报-20260212

General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: February 12, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 2.1 Market Review | Contract | Pre-settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 8968 | 8910 | 8950 | 8886 | 8906 | -62 | -0.69% | 290733 | 417236 | -1350 | | P2609 | 8938 | 8880 | 8928 | 8866 | 8886 | -52 | -0.58% | 21418 | 99240 | -1640 | | Y2605 | 8114 | 8096 | 8122 | 8072 | 8110 | -4 | -0.05% | 191275 | 663315 | -7661 | | Y2609 | 8062 | 8046 | 8068 | 8022 | 8052 | -10 | -0.12% | 28286 | 211098 | 1055 | | OI605 | 9128 | 9090 | 9150 | 9072 | 9131 | 3 | 0.03% | 150623 | 260396 | -6443 | | OI609 | 9098 | 9073 | 9113 | 9046 | 9103 | 5 | 0.05% | 9247 | 38777 | -1973 | [7] 2.2 Basis Price - East China third-grade rapeseed oil: April - May 05+500, February - March: OI2605+620, March - April: OI2605+580 - East China market soybean oil basis price: First-grade soybean oil: Spot: Y05+380; Fixed price 8510 yuan/ton; Forward price: March: Y2605+370; March - April: Y2605+350; March - May: Y2605+310; April - May: Y2605+280; May - July: Y2605+230; June - September: Y2609+280; Third-grade soybean oil: 05+360; Degummed soybean oil: 05+250 - Guangzhou traders' palm oil quotes are stable: Dongguan 24-degree 05+30, February [7] 2.3 Market Analysis and Suggestions - The data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board shows that the palm oil inventory at the end of January was 2.815 million tons, a decrease of 7.72% from December, but the inventory is still at a seven-year high. Coupled with the negative impact of the decline in high-frequency export data in February, it is expected that Malaysian palm oil will fall below 4000 or even lower, and the Dalian palm oil will also weaken. Pay attention to the support around 8500. - The final RVO case in early March is crucial for the oil market. The proposed rules issued by the US Treasury Department have strengthened the market's optimistic expectations, but the estimated soybean output in Brazil is continuously increasing, and the harvesting pace is accelerating, which suppresses the upside space of the entire oil and oilseed sector. - The US Department of Agriculture expects the global rapeseed output in the 2025/26 season to reach 95.055 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.024 million tons. The pattern of rapeseed oil abundance in the international market remains unchanged. - Currently, the domestic and international oil markets lack new speculative themes, which have limited impact on futures prices. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there are very few market quotes, trading is light, and funds are continuously flowing out. It is expected that the market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. [8] 3. Industry News - According to the data released by the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 10 was 451,340 tons, a decrease of 10.5% compared with the 504,400 tons exported from January 1 - 10. Among them, the export volume to China was 36,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared with the same period last month. - The monthly report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) shows that the palm oil inventory at the end of January decreased by 7.72% from the previous month to 2.815 million tons. The output decreased by 13.78% from the previous month to 1.577 million tons; the export volume increased by 11.44% to 1.484 million tons. The market previously expected the inventory to be 2.91 million tons and the output to be 1.61 million tons. [11] 4. Data Overview 4.1 USDA Reports - The US Department of Agriculture's February oilseed report shows that the global palm oil output in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 80.716 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. The ending inventory is expected to be 15.297 million tons, an increase of 169,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. The export is expected to be 45.645 million tons, an increase of 357,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. - The USDA supply and demand report maintains the US soybean supply and demand data for the 2025/26 season unchanged, with the output at 4.262 billion bushels, a decrease of 112 million bushels or 2.56% compared with the 2024/25 season. The soybean crushing volume is 2.57 billion bushels, a year-on-year increase of 125 million bushels or 5.11%. The ending inventory also remains unchanged at 350 million bushels, an increase of 25 million bushels or 7.69% compared with the previous year. The farm average price remains unchanged at $10.20 per bushel, higher than the previous year's $10.00. - The USDA supply and demand report predicts that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season will be 428.18 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from the previous month's forecast of 425.68 million tons, and an increase of 1.03 million tons or 0.24% compared with the previous year. The crushing volume is increased by 1.6 million tons, from the previous month's forecast of 366.43 million tons to 368.03 million tons. The export expectation remains unchanged at 187.57 million tons. The ending inventory is increased to 125.51 million tons, 1.1 million tons higher than the previous month's forecast of 124.41 million tons, and 1.85 million tons or 1.50% higher than the 2024/25 season. The global soybean inventory-to-use ratio is 20.50%, higher than the previous month's forecast of 20.37%. [13] 4.2 Brazilian Soybean Exports - SECEX data shows that the export pace of Brazilian soybeans in the first week of February 2026 was lower than the same period last year. From February 1 - 6, the export volume of Brazilian soybeans was 1.184 million tons, compared with 6.428 million tons in February 2025. The average daily export volume so far in February is 236,712 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%. The average export price of soybeans so far in February is $419.7 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. [13]