建信期货生猪日报-20260212

1. Report Information - Report name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: February 12, 2026 [2] 2. Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Conditions - Futures: On the 11th, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fluctuated higher, closing in the positive territory. The highest was 11,590 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,405 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,555 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 7,644 lots to 308,453 lots [7]. - Spot: On the 11th, the average price of三元hogs nationwide was 11.49 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. Analysis - Supply side: Currently, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens is relatively high year-on-year, and there are still pigs to be slaughtered before the Spring Festival. According to sample data from Yongyi, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in February decreased by 17.73% month-on-month. Affected by the reduction in sales days during the holiday, the daily average increased by 21.44% month-on-month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm of the breeding side to slaughter has increased, and the rhythm has accelerated. The slaughter volume increased significantly around the traditional Chinese minor New Year [8]. - Demand side: Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait-and-see state. Around the traditional Chinese minor New Year, the terminal Spring Festival stocking increased significantly, which was also the last wave of peak demand before the festival. Consumer demand increased, the orders of slaughtering enterprises increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased significantly. On February 11, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 286,800 heads, an increase of 10,000 heads from the previous day, a week-on-week increase of 96,000 heads, and a month-on-month increase of 97,000 heads [8]. Outlook - Spot: Before the festival, both supply and demand increased, and the supply was relatively loose. The spot price was mainly fluctuating weakly [8]. - Futures: The production capacity is sufficient, and the supply of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase. There are still some fattened pigs from secondary fattening to be slaughtered after the festival, which will continue to put pressure on the market. At the same time, after the festival, it will enter the off-season of consumption, and the support for the market is weak. The 03/05 contracts are mainly fluctuating weakly [8]. 3. Industry News - As of February 5, the expected cost of self-breeding and self-raising was 12.08 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg. The cost of fattening pigs with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling them was 12.65 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg [9][11] 4. Data Overview - As of February 5, the average profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising was 37 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 9 yuan/head; the average profit per head of fattening with purchased piglets was -24.2 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 10.3 yuan/head [14]. - In the week of February 5, the average market sales price of 6.5 kg piglets was 366 yuan/head, a decrease of 1 yuan/head from the previous week [14]. - In the week of February 5, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.40 kg, a decrease of 0.46 kg from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 0.36%, a decrease of 1.14 kg from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 0.89%, and an increase of 3.22 kg from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 2.59% [14]. - In the week of February 5, the price difference between 175 kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.93 yuan/jin, a week-on-week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [14]. - The cost of purchasing 110 kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg this week was 11.86 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.48 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 kg pigs and fattening them to 150 kg was 12.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/kg from the previous week [14].