建信期货国债日报-20260212

1. Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily - Date: February 12, 2026 - Research Team: Macro - Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of the bond market is a mix of long and short factors, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in February. Before the Spring Festival, the market environment is relatively warm, and after the festival, the supply pressure will increase. Long - term bonds may be more favorable. In the last trading week before the festival, trading is expected to decline, and short - term bonds should have stronger support [11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: The money market remained in a tight balance, but institutional allocation demand continued to improve. Coupled with the increasing risk - aversion sentiment approaching the long holiday, treasury bond futures closed slightly higher across the board. The yields of major term interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market showed a pattern of short - term increase and long - term decrease, with the decline of long - term active bonds around 1bp. The inter - bank money market tightened, with a net reverse - repurchase injection of 403.5 billion yuan in the open market. The overnight DR rate in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated narrowly around 1.37%, the 7 - day fund rate dropped about 1.9bp to around 1.54%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.6% [8][9][10] - Conclusion: Although the current fundamentals are weak, the expected market easing is not strong. The large supply pressure of local bonds in the first quarter is a concern, but the current yield level of 10 - year treasury bonds around 1.8% does not price in the possible future easing. With the support of allocation demand at the beginning of the year and the central bank's positive attitude towards protecting the money market, the upward space of interest rates should be limited [11][12] 4.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China released the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2025" on February 10, stating that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and introduce three ways of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [13] - Japanese Prime Minister Takamachi Sanae expressed her willingness to have dialogue with China, but the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman responded that such a "dialogue" with confrontation actions was unacceptable [13] - US President Trump said he was considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The second round of US - Iran talks is expected to be held next week [14] - During the "good start" deposit - attracting competition of banks before the Spring Festival, small and medium - sized banks mainly attract customers by raising the interest rates of specific deposit products, and large banks use methods such as giving points and reward rebates. The due deposit funds are likely to circulate within the banking system and flow more into low - risk assets [14] 4.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides data on the trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on February 11, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. It also mentions the inter - period spread and inter - variety spread of the main treasury bond futures contracts [6] - Money Market: Relevant data on the money market are presented, such as the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [29][33] - Derivatives Market: The Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) are provided [35]