大越期货油脂早报-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are oscillating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil and fat supply is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which has put pressure on the price of US soybeans. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8410, the basis is 300, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, and up 14.7% year - on - year. It is bearish [2] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [2] - Main position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8910, the basis is 4, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, up 2,200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase, and up 46% year - on - year. It is bearish [3] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is neutral [3] - Main position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9920, the basis is 789, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and down 44% year - on - year. It is bullish [4] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is neutral [4] - Main position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main logic: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose [5]