大越期货贵金属早报-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall strong US January non - farm payroll report has dampened expectations of interest rate cuts. Gold and silver prices have shown an oscillating upward trend, but with the decline in short - term event uncertainties and cooling of interest rate cut expectations, both gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels this week, and attention should be paid to the US CPI [4][5]. - In the medium - term, with the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and loose policies, and the high risk appetite makes it difficult for gold and silver prices to fall. However, the downward risks also increase [9][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Gold: The overall strong US January non - farm payroll report dampened interest rate cut expectations, and the gold price oscillated and closed higher. The three major US stock indexes slightly closed down, European stock indexes had mixed closing results, US bond yields rose collectively, the 10 - year US bond yield rose 2.77 basis points to 4.170%, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 96.86, the offshore RMB slightly appreciated against the US dollar to 6.9143, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.53% to $5107.80 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The overall strong US January non - farm payroll report dampened interest rate cut expectations, and the silver price oscillated and closed higher. The three major US stock indexes had mixed closing results, European stock indexes had mixed closing results, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year US bond yield fell 5.94 basis points to 4.143%, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 96.86, the offshore RMB slightly appreciated against the US dollar to 6.9143, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.60% to $84.08 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is - 3.91, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 1020 kilograms to 105072 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 995, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 4822 kilograms to 323368 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 12:45: Australian Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Hunter speaks at the CEDA WA Forum - 15:00: The Ministry of Commerce holds the second regular press conference in February - 15:00: Release of the initial value of the UK's Q4 GDP - 17:00: European Central Bank Executive Board member Cipollone speaks - 21:30: Release of the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week of February 7 and the January PPI - 21:45: Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rogers speaks - 23:00: Release of the annualized total number of existing home sales in the US in January [16] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: The overall strong US January non - farm payroll report dampened interest rate cut expectations. Today, the US House of Representatives voted to reject Trump's proposal to impose tariffs on Canada, and the situation between the US and Iran tends towards peace talks, causing the gold price to oscillate and decline. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to about - 2.4 yuan per gram. Gold prices are gradually returning to rationality [4]. - Silver: The overall strong US January non - farm payroll report dampened interest rate cut expectations. Today, the US House of Representatives voted to reject Trump's proposal to impose tariffs on Canada, and the situation between the US and Iran tends towards peace talks. The silver price followed the gold price and oscillated and closed higher. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to 1200 yuan per gram, and domestic sentiment has rapidly cooled. The volatility of silver prices has extremely converged [5]. 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold increased by 4679 to 157,666, the short position decreased by 1150 to 31,171, and the net position increased by 5829 to 126,495 [32]. - Silver: The long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver increased by 1606 to 298,029, the short position increased by 4621 to 207,906, and the net position decreased by 3015 to 90,123 [34].