大越期货尿素早报-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are at a high level year-on-year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is declining, showing an obvious de-stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still good, the agricultural reserve demand is strong, and the demand for compound fertilizers in the industrial sector is stable, while the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports. Recently, the downstream demand is fair, but the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2605 contract basis is 3, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.2%, also neutral. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 million tons (-0.5), which is bullish. The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is also bullish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year-on-year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is declining, showing an obvious de-stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still good, the agricultural reserve demand is strong, and the demand for compound fertilizers in the industrial sector is stable, while the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports. Recently, the downstream demand is fair, but the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The UR2605 contract basis is 3, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 million tons (-0.5), which is bullish [4]. - Disk: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today. The operating rate is at a high level year-on-year. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream reserve demand is fair, and the inventory is decreasing [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - Bullish Factors: Inventory de-stocking and good reserve demand [5]. - Bearish Factors: Domestic oversupply [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Type | Quantity | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1800 | 0 | 05 Contract | 1797 | 12 | Warehouse Receipt | 10949 | -87 | | Shandong Spot | 1800 | 0 | Basis | 3 | -12 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 108.4 | -0.5 | | Henan Spot | 1800 | 0 | UR01 | 1748 | 13 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 91.9 | 0 | | FOB China | 3059 | | UR05 | 1797 | 12 | UR Port Inventory | 16.5 | 0 | | | | | UR09 | 1756 | 13 | | | | [6] Urea Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]