大越期货PTA&MEG早报-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PTA: As the Spring Festival approaches, polyester production cuts are expanding, and the terminal is gradually on holiday. PTA supply and demand are accumulating, and the spot market negotiation is light. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side before the Spring Festival, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the commodity atmosphere and the changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. - MEG: There is still a strong seasonal inventory accumulation expectation for ethylene glycol from January to February, but the medium - term supply - demand structure is moderately improving. Overseas devices have postponed restarts and new maintenance volumes, and the import volume is expected to be revised down in the second quarter. Attention should be paid to the supply stability in the Iranian region. The absolute price of ethylene glycol is at a low level, and there is buying support at the low level. It is expected that the market will maintain a low - range consolidation before the festival [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the report 2.每日提示 - PTA: Yesterday, the PTA futures fluctuated upward, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis fluctuated little. Some mainstream suppliers sold goods. The goods this week were negotiated around 05 - 6085, with the price negotiation range at 51455210. The goods at the end of February were traded at a discount of 57~60 to 05, and the warehouse receipts at the end of February were traded at 05 - 50. The goods in mid - March were traded at a discount of 35 to 05. Today's mainstream spot basis is 05 - 73. The net short position increased, showing a bearish signal. The PTA factory inventory is 3.74 days, a 0.16 - day increase from the previous period, also bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [5][6]. - MEG: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol market rose slightly and then fell back, and the market negotiation was average. In the morning, driven by the news that a 900,000 - ton/year device in Lianyungang stopped for production conversion, the ethylene glycol futures rose slightly, and the on - site negotiation was okay. The mainstream spot negotiation was traded at a discount of 110 - 115 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the afternoon, the ethylene glycol futures fell back and entered a narrow - range shock trend, and the on - site negotiation was light, with the overall trading volume shrinking. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol overseas market rose slightly, and the market negotiation was light. The recent arrival vessels were negotiated and traded at around 436 - 445 US dollars/ton, the vessels arriving at the end of February and early March were negotiated at around 449 - 451 US dollars/ton, and the vessels arriving in early March were traded at around 453 US dollars/ton. The net short position decreased, but still showed a bearish signal. The inventory in East China is 853,000 tons, a 22,000 - ton increase from the previous period, bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, also bearish [7][8]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the report 4.基本面数据 - PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of PX from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory changes, and other indicators [11]. - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the monthly balance data of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering production, import, export, consumption, surplus, and year - on - year changes [12]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly balance data of ethylene glycol from October 2025 to September 2026, including production, import, consumption, surplus, and year - on - year changes [13]. 5.PTA每日观点 - The PTA market is affected by the approaching Spring Festival. With the expansion of polyester production cuts and the terminal on holiday, the supply and demand are accumulating. It is expected that the price will follow the cost side to fluctuate, and the basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the commodity atmosphere and device changes [5]. 6.MEG每日观点 - There is a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation for ethylene glycol in the short term, but the medium - term supply - demand structure is improving. The import volume is expected to decrease in the second quarter. The price is at a low level with buying support, and the market is expected to consolidate in a low range before the festival [7]. 7.影响因素总结 - L利多因素: The 700,000 - ton device of Gulei Petrochemical will start maintenance in early March and is expected to last until around the end of April [9]. - 利空因素: The 1,000,000 - ton PTA device of Nengtou resumed operation last week [10]. - Main Logic and Risk Points: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upward resistance level of the futures price should be noted [10].