大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260212

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: February 12, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. Their prices are expected to fluctuate today due to cost support from the suspension of OPEC's Q1 production increase and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, as well as weak downstream demand near the Spring Festival [4][7] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the Q1 2026 production increase plan. Crude oil is in a volatile range, and polyolefins follow suit. Near the Spring Festival, most agricultural film and packaging film enterprises have stopped work, with few orders. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6600 (unchanged) [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -187, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.8%, indicating a bearish signal [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 36.7 tons (down 3.6 tons), indicating a bullish signal [4] - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a neutral signal [4] - Main Position: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support [6] - Negative Factors: Weak downstream demand [6] - Main Logic: Supply exceeds demand, and the supply-demand margin is sensitive [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. OPEC+ suspended the Q1 2026 production increase plan. Near the Spring Festival, the overall start of plastic weaving has significantly declined, and pipe demand has also been affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The current PP delivery spot price is 6650 (unchanged) [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -43, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.6%, indicating a bearish signal [7] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 39.1 tons (down 2.5 tons), indicating a bullish signal [7] - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a bullish signal [7] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] - Likely Factors: Cost support [8] - Negative Factors: Weak downstream demand [8] - Main Logic: Supply exceeds demand, and the supply-demand margin is sensitive [8] Market Data - LLDPE: The spot delivery price is 6600 (unchanged), the 05 contract price is 6787 (up 12), the basis is -187 (down 12), the warehouse receipt is 9428 (unchanged), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 36.7 tons (down 3.6 tons), and the PE social inventory is 50.8 tons (up 2.3 tons) [9] - PP: The spot delivery price is 6650 (unchanged), the 05 contract price is 6693 (up 5), the basis is -43 (down 5), the warehouse receipt is 17294 (up 26), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 39.1 tons (down 2.5 tons), and the PP social inventory is 27.1 tons (up 0.5 tons) [9] Supply-Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [14] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 [16]