大越期货纯碱早报-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high production, declining downstream demand, and high inventory. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [2] - There is a mismatch between supply and demand in the soda ash industry, which has not been effectively improved [5] Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash was 1,178 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The main basis was - 58 yuan/ton, up 13.73% [6] 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12] 3. Soda Ash Production - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process was - 160.80 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process was - 97 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 83.25% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 77.43 tons, including 41.40 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [20] 4. Soda Ash Industry Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 640 tons, including Anhui Hongsifang, Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy, etc [21] - In 2024, the total new capacity was 180 tons, including Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy, Henan Jinshan, etc [21] - In 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons, including Jiangsu Lianyungang Debang, Lianyungang Alkali, etc [21] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 97.06% [24] - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.98 tons, and the operating rate was 71.86% [27] 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.5811 million tons, an increase of 2.39% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [33] 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the data of effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, etc. from 2017 to 2024E, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and growth rate of the soda ash industry in different years [34] 8. Influencing Factors - Likely to be favorable: The expected full - production time of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy is postponed [3] - Likely to be unfavorable: Enterprises' production lines are expected to resume, and there is no new maintenance plan, so the output is expected to remain high. The production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [5]