大越期货菜粕早报-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2260 - 2320. The market is affected by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations. In the short - term, it is affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations and is oscillating weakly, while in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. The post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the long - holiday off - season. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short - term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China - Canada trade issues, resulting in a short - term reduction in domestic supply [11]. - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, the China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short - term. The tariffs imposed by both sides are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [11]. - The global rapeseed output has increased this year, especially the Canadian rapeseed output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed output and the increase in Russia's rapeseed output offset each other. The global geopolitical conflict may rise in the future, which still supports bulk commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Likely to Rise - China's post - Spring Festival demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be good [12]. - The rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is under no pressure [12]. - Likely to Fall - The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the short - term off - season [12]. - China - Canada trade relations have improved, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [12]. - Current Main Logic - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Market Data - From February 3rd to February 11th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3117 - 3136, and the trading volume varied from 5.03 - 26.17 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2430 - 2450, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only on February 6th reaching 3 million tons. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 667 - 696 [13]. - From February 4th to February 11th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2605) fluctuated between 2238 - 2288, and the far - month contract 2609 fluctuated between 2284 - 2330. The spot price of rapeseed meal (in Fujian) was mainly 2430 - 2450 [15]. - From February 3rd to February 11th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were all 0 [17]. - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - In the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and inventory consumption ratio have all shown certain fluctuations. For example, the inventory consumption ratio in 2025 reached 10.56% [19]. - In the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 - 2025, the output, total demand, and inventory consumption ratio also fluctuated. The inventory consumption ratio in 2025 was 9.85% [21]. - Other Information - Rapeseed meal futures are in a low - level oscillation, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium remains at a relatively high level [22]. - The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market has narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has fluctuated slightly [24]. - Imported rapeseed will start to arrive in February, and the import cost has rebounded from a low level [27]. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [28]. - The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills has increased slightly while maintaining operation [30]. - The price of aquatic fish has fluctuated slightly, and the price of shrimps and shellfish has remained stable [38]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals - Rapeseed meal has oscillated and rebounded, affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. After the short - term negative impact of China's cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, the market has returned to oscillation. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. The post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good. In the short - term, it is affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations and is oscillating weakly, while in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. - Basis - The spot price is 2440, and the basis is 152, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a bullish signal [9]. - Inventory - The total domestic rapeseed meal inventory is 43.78 tons, compared with 44.95 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6%. Compared with 50.2 million tons in the same period last year, it has decreased by 12.79%, which is a bullish signal [9]. - Market - The price is above the 20 - day moving average but is moving downward, showing a neutral signal [9]. - Main Position - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out, showing a bearish signal [9]. - Expectation - Rapeseed meal has bottomed out and rebounded due to the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations. Considering that the domestic rapeseed meal has entered the supply - demand off - season recently, it will maintain an oscillating pattern after the overall negative factors are digested. Attention should be paid to the future development of China - Canada trade relations [9].