大越期货原油早报-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical concerns continue to support oil prices as Israel and the US discuss the Iranian issue and military actions intensify, but OPEC's prediction of a 400,000 barrels per day decrease in global demand for OPEC+ crude in Q2 and a slight supply surplus in the same quarter suppress the upside space of oil prices. Short - term crude oil is expected to continue to fluctuate at high levels, waiting for more news from the US - Iran negotiations. SC2604 is expected to operate in the range of 477 - 487, and there are long - term opportunities to try short positions on rallies [3]. - Short - term focus on geopolitics, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Trump privately considers withdrawing from the US - Mexico - Canada trade agreement, adding uncertainty; OPEC predicts a 400,000 barrels per day decrease in global demand for OPEC+ in Q2 with a slight surplus; Trump says reaching an agreement with Iran is the "preferred" option, and the US Pentagon prepares to deploy a carrier strike group to the Middle East [3]. - Basis: On February 11, the spot price of Oman crude was $69.10 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $68.30 per barrel, with a basis of 32.13 yuan/barrel, and the spot price was at a premium to the futures price [3]. - Inventory: US API crude inventory increased by 13.4 million barrels in the week ending February 6; EIA inventory increased by 8.53 million barrels in the week to February 6, exceeding the expected increase of 793,000 barrels; Cushing area inventory increased by 1.071 million barrels in the week to February 6; Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels as of February 11 [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average [3]. - Main Position: As of February 3, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased [3]. - Expectation: Short - term crude oil is expected to continue to fluctuate at high levels, waiting for more news from the US - Iran negotiations. SC2604 is expected to operate in the range of 477 - 487, and there are long - term opportunities to try short positions on rallies [3]. 2. Recent News - OPEC Report: The global demand for OPEC+ crude in Q2 is expected to average 42.2 million barrels per day, lower than 42.6 million barrels per day in Q1. OPEC maintains the forecast of global oil demand growth of 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. In January, OPEC+ daily output was 42.45 million barrels, a decrease of 439,000 barrels from December, mainly due to production cuts in Kazakhstan, Russia, Venezuela, and Iran [5]. - US Policy: The US government issued a general license allowing oilfield service companies to work in Venezuela, a step in relaxing sanctions and promoting the reconstruction of the country's crude oil infrastructure [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Not provided in the given content - Bearish Factors: IEA's concern about crude oil surplus and the alleviation of supply problems in some oil - producing countries [6] - Market Drivers: Short - term focus on geopolitics, and medium - to - long - term risk of oversupply [6] 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: Brent crude settled at $68.80, down $0.24 or 0.35%; WTI crude settled at $63.96, down $0.40 or 0.62%; SC crude settled at 472.5, up 6.5 or 1.39%; Oman crude settled at $66.77, down $1.01 or 1.49% [7]. - Spot Quotes: UK Brent Dtd was at $72.41, up $0.12 or 0.17%; WTI was at $63.96, down $0.40 or 0.62%; Oman crude (Pacific Rim) was at $68.28, up $1.07 or 1.59%; Shengli crude (Pacific Rim) was at $65.08, up $1.51 or 2.38%; Dubai crude (Pacific Rim) was at $68.43, up $1.30 or 1.94% [9]. - API Inventory: As of February 6, API inventory was 45.1431 million barrels, an increase of 13.4 million barrels [10]. - EIA Inventory: As of February 6, EIA inventory was 42.8829 million barrels, an increase of 8.53 million barrels [13]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Fund Net Long Position: As of February 3, the net long position was 124,565, an increase of 27,583 [16]. - Brent Crude Fund Net Long Position: As of February 3, the net long position was 278,249, an increase of 31,332 [18].