大越期货PVC期货早报-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are bearish, with supply pressure increasing this week and expected to rise slightly next week, while demand may remain sluggish. The overall cost is strengthening, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4940 - 5040. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market, and the main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the slow recovery of domestic demand [8][9][10]. - Bullish factors include the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In January 2026, PVC production was 2.14863 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.53%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.26%, with no change from the previous week. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 348,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 136,960 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with production scheduled to increase slightly [8]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 41.42%, a decrease of 3.33 percentage points from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin all decreased compared to the previous week but were higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - Cost Side: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 658.58 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 11.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the profit of ethylene method was 102.91 yuan/ton, a profit increase of 91.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the double - ton spread was 1,818.35 yuan/ton, a profit increase of 0.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [9]. - Other Aspects: On February 11, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 160 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 287,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%, calcium carbide factory inventory was 210,390 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%, ethylene factory inventory was 77,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.15%, and social inventory was 592,860 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%. The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview, including enterprise indicators, monthly spreads, inventory, downstream operating rates, profits, costs, and other data, as well as their changes from the previous period [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Base Price Trend: The report presents the base price trend chart of PVC futures from 2022 to 2026, including the base price, PVC East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract [18]. - Futures Price and Volume Trends: It shows the price, volume, and open interest trends of PVC futures in January - February 2026, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [21]. - Spread Analysis: The report provides the spread analysis chart of the main contracts of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit of the chlor - alkali industry, as well as the double - ton spread and caustic soda consumption and inventory [27][30][32][35][38]. - PVC Supply Trend: It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, production profits, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume of PVC from 2018 - 2026 [41][43]. - Demand Trend: It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, paste resin, as well as the profit, cost, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin. It also shows real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, and macro - economic data such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [46][48][50][54][56]. - Inventory: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC from 2019 - 2026 [58]. - Ethylene Method: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the FOB spread of ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan) and the import spread of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 - 2026 [60]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from December 2024 to January 2026, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [63].