芳烃橡胶早报-20260212

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For PTA, recent TA has turned to inventory accumulation, with its processing fees and PXN compressed. Considering the improved cash - flows of downstream sectors, limited PX supply increase at current valuations, and no significant load - up of TA plants, the valuation is becoming more reasonable. One can focus on phased positive spreads and long - allocation opportunities [2]. - For MEG, after the recent valuation of EG has been compressed again, the reduction in supply has further increased. Although short - term inventory accumulation continues, the certainty of inventory drawdown in the far - month is rising. During the production - expansion cycle, the overall elasticity is limited. One can focus on short - term put - selling opportunities [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream of staple fiber is expected to continue to weaken seasonally, and it has entered the pre - holiday load - reduction stage. The absolute inventory pressure is not large, with a low - to - medium valuation and weak driving force, and overall contradictions are limited. One should pay attention to the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. - For natural rubber, the main strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Basis: The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions is 2605(-63). The basis has strengthened slightly, and the spot processing fee has weakened month - on - month. - Device Changes: Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton plant is under maintenance. - Supply and Demand: Near - term TA plants have resumed operation, and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. Polyester load has continued to decline, and inventory has continued to accumulate [2]. MEG - Price and Basis: The basis of MEG spot transactions is around 05(-113). The basis has weakened slightly, and coal - based profits have shrunk. - Device Changes: Shanxi Wonen's 300,000 - ton plant is under maintenance. - Supply and Demand: Near - term domestic oil - based plants have resumed operation while coal - based plants are under maintenance. The overall operating rate has increased slightly, port inventory has continued to be obvious at the beginning of next week, and the forecast of arrivals this week has declined slightly [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Basis: The spot price is around 6592, and the market basis is around 03 - 50. - Device Changes: There is no information on device maintenance this week. - Supply and Demand: Near - term plant maintenance before the holiday has continued, the operating rate has further declined to 77.7%, sales have remained weak, inventory has accumulated month - on - month, and spot processing fees have improved month - on - month. The operating rate on the polyester yarn side has continued to decline, raw material inventory and finished - product inventory have remained stable, and profits have remained the same month - on - month [2]. Natural Rubber - Price Changes: The weekly changes of some varieties are as follows: the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber has increased by 10, Thai mixed rubber by 5, Shanghai full - latex rubber by 70, and the RU main contract by 190. - Spread Changes: The weekly changes of some spreads are as follows: the spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract has increased by 30, the spread between US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber and NR main contract by 79, and the spread between full - latex and mixed rubber by 90. - Strategy: The main strategy is to wait and see [4]. Styrene - Raw Material and Product Prices: The prices of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) have remained stable at 690. The price of pure benzene (CFR China) has decreased slightly, and the price of styrene (CFR China) has increased by 5 on a daily basis. - Profit Changes: The domestic profit of styrene has remained at 464, and the domestic profit of EPS has decreased by 15 on a daily basis [9].