LPG早报-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for the East China LPG market is expected to remain stable, with a possible slight decline in local transaction prices. The internal basis of the LPG market is still weak, and the downside risk for the civil LPG market during pre - holiday inventory clearance is limited due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG. The 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and the situation of warehouse receipts needs to be monitored. The external market remains tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical factors and cold snaps are key factors that need continuous attention [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Situation - The March - April spread rebounded, with the 3 - 4 month spread at - 275 (+22) and the 4 - 5 month spread at 89 (-2). Warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The East China market was generally stable, with mainstream transactions ranging from 4,150 to 4,800 yuan per ton. Market transportation capacity is gradually decreasing, and refineries are mainly focused on stabilizing inventory before the holiday, with a cautious attitude and limited willingness to adjust prices [1] Weekly Situation - The futures price fluctuated downward this week, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG. The basis strengthened by 163 to - 71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG), the 3 - 4 month spread was - 303 (-9), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6,902 lots (+1,035), with Wuchan Zhongda adding 1,000 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4,150 (+30). The monthly spread of overseas paper goods increased, and the oil - gas price ratio fluctuated. The internal - external spread weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB at 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP at 10 (+13). Freight rates increased. The discount changed significantly due to contract roll - over, but the actual landed cost fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPI spread widened to - 44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, and the number of incoming vessels decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct, and external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct), and Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increasing their loads. Yantai Wanhua Phase II is expected to resume next week. Although the temperature has slightly warmed up, it is still low, and the rigid demand for combustion is fair. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end. It is expected that transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will focus on inventory clearance [1]