大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260212

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply side last week showed that lithium carbonate production was 20,744 tons, a 3.82% decrease from the previous week but still higher than the historical average. The demand side indicated that the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,032 tons, a 1.84% decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,243 tons, a 2.39% decrease. The cost side showed that the cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 139,374 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production loss of 5,545 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 136,955 yuan/ton, a 0.68% increase from the previous day, also with a production loss. The cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. The basis on February 11th showed that the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 138,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was -12,260 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to the futures. The overall inventory was 105,463 tons, a 1.87% decrease from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. The net short position of the main contract decreased. It is predicted that the production and import of lithium carbonate will decrease next month, while the demand is expected to strengthen, and the inventory may be reduced. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 fluctuates greatly, and cautious operation is recommended [8]. - The positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile. The negative factors are the continuous high supply from the ore and salt lake ends with limited decline [9][10]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply-demand balance [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - Supply Side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 20,744 tons, a 3.82% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average. In January 2026, the production was 97,900 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,930 physical tons, a 16.31% decrease [8]. - Demand Side: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,032 tons, a 1.84% decrease; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,243 tons, a 2.39% decrease. The demand is expected to strengthen next month [8]. - Cost Side: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 139,374 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production loss of 5,545 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 136,955 yuan/ton, a 0.68% increase from the previous day, also with a production loss. The cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On February 11th, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 138,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was -12,260 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The overall inventory was 105,463 tons, a 1.87% decrease from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The inventory of smelters was 18,356 tons, a 3.40% decrease; the downstream inventory was 43,657 tons, a 7.53% increase; other inventory was 43,450 tons, a 9.25% decrease [8]. - Disk: The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The net short position of the main contract decreased [8]. - Expectation: It is predicted that the production and import of lithium carbonate will decrease next month, while the demand is expected to strengthen, and the inventory may be reduced. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 fluctuates greatly, and cautious operation is recommended [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Upstream Price: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 1.95% to 1,937 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica concentrate (2%-2.5%) increased by 0.91% to 4,415 yuan/ton; the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.47% to 138,000 yuan/ton, etc. [14]. - Supply and Demand Data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 87.14%, unchanged from the previous week; the monthly production of lithium carbonate was 97,900 tons, a 1.31% decrease from the previous month; the monthly import of lithium carbonate was 24,500 tons, an 8.77% increase from the previous month; the monthly demand for lithium carbonate was -1818 tons, unchanged from the previous month [16]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 139,374 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production loss of 5,545 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 136,955 yuan/ton, a 0.68% increase from the previous day, also with a production loss. The cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Inventory Data: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate was 105,463 tons, a 1.87% decrease from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The inventory of smelters was 18,356 tons, a 3.40% decrease; the downstream inventory was 43,657 tons, a 7.53% increase; other inventory was 43,450 tons, a 9.25% decrease [8].