瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20260212

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The report expects zinc futures in Shanghai to fluctuate and adjust, with the price likely to stay between 24300 - 25000 yuan/ton. The upward momentum is insufficient [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 24650 yuan/ton, up 65 from the previous period. The 03 - 04 contract spread is -20 yuan/ton, up 35 [3] - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3418 dollars/ton, up 20. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 193888 lots, up 649 [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4214 lots, up 2555. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3] - The SHFE inventory is 70689 tons (weekly), up 5535. The LME inventory is 105250 tons (daily), down 1500 [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 24480 yuan/ton, up 20. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 24400 yuan/ton, up 240 [3] - The basis of the main zinc contract is -170 yuan/ton, down 45. The LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is -17.8 dollars/ton, up 1.75 [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21340 yuan/ton, up 10. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35700 tons (monthly), down 14700. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7700 tons (monthly), down 4900 [3] - The global zinc mine production (monthly) is 1.0627 million tons, down 11900. The domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 675000 tons, up 21000 [3] - The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 462600 tons, down 53900 [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume (monthly) is 8760.85 tons, down 9469.07. The refined zinc export volume (monthly) is 27266.66 tons, down 15548.89 [3] - The zinc social inventory is 128000 tons (weekly), up 9500 [3] Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets (monthly) is 2.36 million tons, up 20000. The sales volume of galvanized sheets (monthly) is 2.36 million tons, down 60000 [3] - The new housing construction area (monthly) is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million. The housing completion area (monthly) is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million [3] - The automobile production (monthly) is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107500. The air - conditioner production (monthly) is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 22.92% (daily), down 0.45. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 22.92% (daily), down 0.45 [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 38.46% (daily), down 0.09. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 19.2% (daily), up 0.02 [3] Industry News - In the macro - aspect, the US January non - farm payrolls report was strong, pushing back the market's expectation of the first interest - rate cut from June to July. China's January CPI year - on - year increase fell to 0.2%, and the PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4% [3] - In the fundamental aspect, the zinc ore imports in China are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines cut production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters for domestic ore purchases has increased, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, with production expected to be restricted [3] - The LME zinc price has corrected recently, the SHFE - LME ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually turning into the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home - appliance sectors also weakening, while policies in the automobile and other fields bring some bright spots [3]