瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260212

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests a bearish and volatile outlook for the RB2605 contract, emphasizing the need for risk control. With the approach of the Spring Festival, demand has further shrunk, market sentiment is low, and trading is light. The 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are consolidating at low levels [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,050 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the trading volume is 2,029,537 lots, down 34,123 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is -31,281 lots, down 3,640 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread is -46 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 31,603 tons, up 6,600 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 168 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) is 3,333 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the RB main contract is 200 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 20 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 765 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) is 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 171.3697 million tons, up 1.1845 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 448,200 tons, up 6,800 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.9257 million tons, up 141,700 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.7422 million tons, up 181,300 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79.55%, up 0.53 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 85.71%, up 0.26 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.6916 million tons, down 225,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar is 37.08%, down 4.94 percentage points; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.6359 million tons, up 99,400 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 4.2323 million tons, up 573,100 tons; the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 54.17%, down 14.58 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel is 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 13.75 million tons, up 190,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 10.78 million tons, up 1.3 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is -3.80%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is -17.20%, down 1.30 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is -2.20%, down 1.10 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.5989 billion square meters, down 38.24 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 587.7 million square meters, down 53.13 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale is 402.36 million square meters, down 8.75 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On February 12, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of rebar this period was 1.6916 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 225,200 tons; the mill inventory was 1.6359 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 99,400 tons; the social inventory was 4.2323 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 573,100 tons; the total inventory was 5.8682 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 672,500 tons; the apparent demand was 1.0191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 457,300 tons. According to Mysteel research, the willingness of construction steel enterprises in Jiangsu Province to store steel for the winter is generally low, with more than two - thirds of enterprises having no active plans; the winter - storage policy is mainly based on locked - price contracts, and flexible combined plans are also valued. This year's winter - storage cost is relatively rigid, and the cost support after the Spring Festival is strong [2].