沪铜产业日报-20260212

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper futures market shows that the main contract opened high and then declined, with decreasing positions. The spot is at a discount, and the basis has strengthened. The copper market fundamentals are in a stage of slightly converging supply and boosted pre - holiday stocking demand. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 102,330 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 13,245 dollars/ton, up 78.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 350 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 147,631 lots, down 10,919 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 65,220 lots, down 4,448 lots. The LME copper inventory is 192,100 tons, up 3,000 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 248,911 tons, up 15,907 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 22,450 tons, up 2,975 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrants are 187,179 tons, down 2,856 tons; the COMEX copper inventory is 592,536 short tons, up 1,077 short tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 102,040 yuan/ton, up 725 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 copper spot price is 102,110 yuan/ton, up 775 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 38 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 33 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis is - 290 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread is - 76.01 dollars/ton, up 0.09 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 2.7043 million tons, up 178,000 tons. The copper smelter's TC is - 52.37 dollars/thousand tons, down 2.53 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 92,390 yuan/metal ton, up 750 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 93,090 yuan/metal ton, up 750 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 2,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the northern processing fee is 1,800 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper is 1.326 million tons, up 90,000 tons. The monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The weekly social copper inventory is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of scrap copper (1 bright copper wire) in Shanghai is 67,790 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 81,850 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 2.2291 million tons, up 3,100 tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment completion amount is 63.9502 billion yuan, up 7.9113 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment completion amount is 827.8814 billion yuan, up 41.9724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,000 pieces, up 415,345,000 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 43.85%, down 0.21 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 36.17%, down 0.05 percentage points. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 23.33%, up 0.0015 percentage points; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.4, down 0.0389 [2] Industry News - In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, with core CPI up 0.8% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month for four consecutive months, with a year - on - year decline of 1.4%, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points. The US added 130,000 non - farm payrolls in January, far exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025. A French institution proposed about 30% tariffs on China, and China may take counter - measures. In January, China's auto production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with new energy vehicle production and sales at 1.041 million and 0.945 million, and exports of new energy vehicles up 100%. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy [2]